THIS IS A BREAKDOWN OF HOW THIS BIG, RECORD BLOCKING RIDGE OF WARMTH IN THE ARCTIC IS CREATING A JUGGERKNOT IN THE WEATHER PATTERN HERE & WILL MAKE FOR MAJOR FLOODING IN THE PLAINS & NORTHERN MIDWEST U.S. & RECORD HEAT, DRY WEATHER & EVEN SOME WILDFIRES IN THE SOUTHERN U.S. OVER THE NEXT MONTH.
THIS JUGGERKNOT IS ALL A TUNDRA & OCEAN TO ATMOSPHERE POSITIVE FEEDBACK LOOP WITH IMPLICATIONS ON THE ENTIRE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE WEATHER PATTERN. EVEN EUROPE IS & WILL SEE BIG EFFECTS FROM THIS.
IT IS ALL LINED OUT HERE IN YOUR WEATHER FORECAST. THIS TRACES IT DOWN TO HOW IT WILL AFFECT YOUR WEATHER DAILY TO THE END OF MAY:
Scattered showers & a few t'storms will pass through the area off & on through midday. We will then dry out(other than an isolated shower) with highs 54 north to 70 south & near 64 in Greater Lafayette. Mid 80s will occur in Kentucky with 80 into southern Indiana.
Lows tonight will vary from 41 north to 55 south.
New showers & some t'storms will form to our southwest & move northeastward tonight. These will move in early Tuesday morning.
The good news is that any severe risk looks to stay southwest of our area early in the morning.
Warm front will be laid up over area Tuesday. Scattered showers & t'storms look to pass through the viewing area at times all day.
Highs will vary from 54 north to as high as 78 south & around 68 at Greater Lafayette.
Note the noon time temperatures below. Highs Tuesday could reach 90 by late afternoon from Virginia to Alabama to Texas. Mid 80s could reach the Ohio River. Even parts of eastern Kentucky could reach 90 degrees.
The warm front will literally separate late winter-early spring from all-out summer.
Some better dynamics will just side-swipe out area & low-level shear will be increased along warm front. This, with the warm, humid weather in parts of the viewing area will lead to the risk of an isolated severe t'storm or two Tuesday midday through afternoon.
The best severe risk will run from Kansas & Oklahoma to Missouri & western Illinois for the afternoon, however.
I think we could end up in some MARGINAL RISK with SLIGHT RISK Illinois & southwestward.
Squall line of severe t'storms should congeal west of us & reach the Mississippi River by 9 p.m. Tuesday evening.
The line will move eastward, but as the better forcing, dynamics & overall shear depart & the line outruns those values, it will tend to weaken.
Nonetheless, with warmf from potentially moving as far north as Newton, Jasper, Pulaski & Fulton counties, bathing much of the viewing area in temperatures of 65-70, an isolated severe t'storm could still occur. Dew points may rise to 63-67, making it the most muggy time so far this spring.
This would largely be based on the strengthening low-level jet, some increase in the low-level shear along the warm front & some slightly more unstable air coming in from the south with those warmer temperatures.
You can see how the warm front moves much farther northward Tuesday night-Wednesday morning below:
Warm front looks to move pretty far north Wednesday. Note noon time temperatures of 72-77 in our area. Highs Wednesday could run 75-81 in our area as long as warm front stays far enough north.
We could see 90 in West Virginia Wednesday & upper 80s in southern Ohio with some 90s into Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama. The first 90-degree day (91 projected of 2019 is possible in Washington D.C. 80s may reach central New York State to western Massachusetts (sea breeze off the cold water may keep Boston in the 50s & 60s!).
All of my analog data had this heat reaching part of the viewing area in late April to very early May (in forecasts back in February & March to early April) with mid to upper 80s for Greater Lafayette. It looks to set up just south & southeast of our area.
I really crunched numbers & found that the warm front should set up Iowa to southern Michigan & leave us in period of very warm, windy, dry weather to allow for some nice durations of spring planting for farmers, but it is just setting up a bit too far to the south.
It will dry out & just be warm, windy & humid for much or Wednesday with a mix of clouds & sun. Dew points may reach thier highest levels of the year with 65-68, leading to a rather muggy day.. However, new showers & t'storms should form to our west & work eastward.
Given the warmth, humidity & instability & the fact that a shortwave & some dynamics & shear will move through the area, an upgrade to SLIGHT RISK of severe is possible. We are in MARGINAL RISK from the Storm Prediction Center right now.
This would tend to pass Wednesday evening.
Note how some supercell-type t'storms begin to develop late afternoon-early evening northeast & south of our area.
Thinking that the t'storms in Michigan may back build into our area, so there may be multiple broken lines/bands of some supercells & supercell to multi-cell clusters that develop from southern Michigan & Ontario, through western Pennsylvania, Ohio, Indiana, eastern Illinois to Kentucky, even to Missouri, Oklahoma & northern Arkansas.
So, a large SLIGHT RISK area may be drawn up with time.
Another round of showers & t'storms is likely Thursday morning-early afternoon as the front move southward as a cold front.
At this point, severe risk is fairly low with this feature with parameters barely reaching MARGINAL RISK.
1.5-3.5" of rainfall is possible for the viewing area from what we have had this morning right up to Thursday evening. The highest totals will tend to be in our northern counties.
River flooding will likely worsen in the area & could be with us right to late May.
When you get these atmospheric blocks, like the wall of upper ridging over northern Canada & near Greenland, the pattern stagnates. We are seeing more & more occurrence of these blocks & they result in locked-in & extreme weather patterns.
This block will cause the battern zone with the warm front to continue over & near the viewing area once again next weekend & into next week.
It is not uncommon to see this for a few days off & on April to May as spring & summer duke it out with our area being a transition between two climate zones.
However, the blocks have been rather pronounced this spring due to the unusual ridging in the Arctic & the decreasing sea ice that is anchoring the ridges there.
In fact, we will see an extreme record-breaking heat wave in the Arctic this weak with record-early permafrost melt & continued anchoring of blocking over that area. The warmth extends to just northeast of Newfoundland.
Note the extreme record heat in the Arctic to northeastern Canada & Greenland & the unusually cold weather in the Northern Rockies & Plains stuck & the very tight temperature gradient between the record heat in the southern U.S. & the much colder weather in Iowa & far northern Illinois. Note how the boundary is near our area back to Oklahoma & then all the way to New York.
This is causing record warm, dry weather from Iceland to the Scandinavian countries to the Ukraine, but unusually cold weather from France through Italy, Greece to Switzerland with unusually wet, stormy weather & very low snow levels in the Alps.
So................warm front begins to advance right back northward Friday night after a dry Friday afternoon (highs in the 60s).
Showers & a few t'storms are possible Saturday, May 4.
Saturday may end up rather cool with 50s & 60s with rainfall along & north of the warm front, which will move toward the area.
Rainfall of 0.25-0.50" is possible for our area.
SUNDAY-NEXT MONDAY MORNING:
Warm front should move north of the area Sunday, bathing us in warmth of 77-81 with strong southerly winds.
Severe weather will likely be lined up from parts of Iowa to Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma to Texas.
Warm front should stall next Monday-Tuesday morning (May 6-7) from Detroit to Kankakee to Davenport to Kansas City to north of Amarillo.
Lots of severe t'storms will likely occur in this zone with potential of a serious flash flooding situation developing Kansas to northeastern Illinois as t'storms train over the same area atop saturated soils. It is a sitation of very high Precipitable Water Values along a warm front with torrential severe t'storms that may dump +4" rainfall in one night in some places in that zone well northwest of our area.
A few t'storms may clip Newton & Jasper to Pulaski counties.
We look warm, windy & muggy with highs in the 80s & lows in the 60s.
We may very well have a severe weather situation from our viewing area to eastern Texas by Tuesday evening as vigorous upper trough kicks southeastward quickly & forces front abruptly southward as a strong cold front.
This, after we may hit the 80s Tuesday with dew points 65-70.
If we can indeed get that warm & we can get the t'storms to pass at peak heating & humidity then a fairly robust severe weather environment (ENHANCED RISK-type parameters) may exist here.
We will monitor. It is all about the timing & the timing of the best dynamics & shear.
1-2" of rainfall is possible.
NEXT WEDNESDAY (MAY 8)-NEXT FRIDAY (MAY 10):
After a dry Wednesday next week (May 8) to Thursday (May 9), believe it or not, the warm front will move right back northward Thursday night-Friday with the return of showers & t'storms with highs in the 60s to 70s.
SATURDAY (MAY 11)-SUNDAY (MAY 12):
However, strong upper trough should push the front through by late Saturday, May 11. Some severe weather risk could occur given projected dynamics in place. However, some of this risk is dependent upon timing of the frontal & storms' passage. If they occur at peak heating, then risk will be much better.
We should dry out & turn a bit cooler Sunday, May 12.
We just do not look to break free of this pattern of meandering warm front right to as late as May 17.
Off & one showers & t'storms with severe risk at times & river flooding will continue. Rivers may not recede until late May, when we may see the big block to our north break down.
The worst of the rainfall & flooding will occur Nebraska & Kansas to Iowa, northern Illinois, Wisconsin & Michigan. There, serious, significant flooding will occur at times perhaps to as late as early June.
Grain prices should go up as the market gets nervous about the western & northern Corn Belt continued significant flooding & the continued bouts of planting-delaying rain in our area. The only area that may see a more timely crop get out is the southern Corn Belt & parts of the Ohio Valley, which will tend to be drier.
We may fit in a few little spurts where higher ground dries for planting in our area, given the warmer temperatures & the strong southerly to southwesterly winds that will tend to occur at times.
We do see these patterns for a while in the spring & into early summer, but this sustained blocking in Canada is a bit more unusual.
Again, much of it is tied to lack of sea ice & this feedback mechanism of the very unusual early snow melt & permafrost thaw of the Arctic. The albedo or reflective of snow is just not there, so the soils are absorbing the sun's rays & it is only heating up, re-enforcing the blocking upper ridge there. This causes a juggerknot in our weather patterns here & in our region.
Also, the very tight pressure gradient between the snow cover closer to the North Pole & the record heat in the Arctic will create strong gradient winds, which will open up more ocean water, scouring the area of sea ice. Again, this only perpetuates the blocking ridge.
Note where Arctic ice extent is compared to previous years & averages:
The wet get wetter & the dry get drier & hotter. In fact, in this pattern, a long stretch of near to record heat will likely develop throughout the South with farmers beginning to really need rain in May. Near 100 may be in the cards in North Carolina in May (95-100) with 92-98 common in the South & into the Florida Peninsula. Wildfires may begin to break out while Kansas to northern Illinois & Wisconsin floods in a big way.
MAY 18 TO END OF THE MONTH:
After May 18, we see longer stretches of dry weather with surface high pressure showing greater domination. We may cool for a bit, but I think much of late May will feature above normal temperatures.
This drying trend will allow corn & soybean planting to ramp up nicely.
However, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa to Nebraska & even South Dakota may remain pretty wet, causing continued massive delays in planting there.
The South will not be as hot, but may continue to lack rainfal it needs as the main corridor of deeper moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is fed around surface high from Texas to the Plains.
This will feed continued wet weather in that Plains to western & northern Corn Belt growing zone.
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- April 28, 11:45 AM Weather Forecast Update
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- September 28, 10 AM Weather Forecast Update
- April 11, 10:45 PM Weather Forecast Update