SEVERE WX : Flash Flood Watch View Alerts

April 27, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update

Warm front separating winter/early spring from late spring/summer is the focus this week.

Posted: Apr 28, 2019 9:04 PM
Updated: Apr 29, 2019 11:45 AM

HOW SUNDAY FARED:

Lows this morning ran 32-40, followed by highs today of 53-60.  Winds were strong from the north, then turned northeast, then east, now they are beginning to turn east-southeast.  This is a result of the front coming right back north as a warm front as warmth tries to build back northward.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING:

With this warm front & a disturbance riding along it, some showers & t'storms will pass at times early morning to midday.  A few showers will precede this late this evening-tonight

Any isolated severe weather risk looks to stay west & southwest of our area right through the overnight & to Monday morning.

MONDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING:

Mostly dry weather (MOSTLY due to potential of an isolated shower/t'storm or two along the warm front randomly) will tend to occur in the afternoon to evening.  Warm front will tend to hang up over the area, resulting in a pretty sharp gradient in temperatures.

Highs tomorrow will range from 55 in the far north to 72 in the far southwest & 65 at Greater Lafayette.

Rainfall totals Monday morning should vary from 0.90" in the far north to only around 0.20" in the south.

The totals will tend to decrease at a pretty steep clip south of Route 18.

TUESDAY:

Some showers & t'storms are possible early Tuesday morning as another disturbance passes along the warm front. 

However, Tuesday midday-afternoon will then turn MOSTLY dry (I say MOSTLY due to the risk of a couple of random showers/t'storms developing) with lots of clouds & highs around 61 in the far north to 75-80 in the south & around 71 at Greater Lafayette.

If the warm front working farther north than expected, then 75-80 could reach Greater Lafayette.  We will monitor.

At this point, any severe risk looks to stay west of us Tuesday as a squall line of severe t'storms from Iowa to Oklahoma with mainly wind & some tornadoes.

Line should reach the Mississippi River & still be severe around 9 p.m. Tuesday evening.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY MORNING:

The squall line should weaken some as it approaches our area Tuesday night-early Wednesday morning.  The line will tend to outrun the best dynamics & shear.  However, strong low-level jet nearby & increasing surface CAPE or unstable air may keep risk of a couple isolated severe storms embedded in the line going into the viewing area.

The warm front should move northward as this squall line approaches, bathing the entire viewing area in temperatures of 65-72 in the night to early Wednesday morning.

WEDNESDAY:

Once this rain exits Wednesday morning, warm front should push back northward in response to disturbance to our west.

Highs will range from 68 north to 80 south & around 75 at Greater Lafayette.

Showers & t'storms may re-develop in the late afternoon-evening.

There is the risk of some severe weather given strengthening wind fields & shear through the troposphere as disturbance approaches along the warm front.

THURSDAY:

One more round of showers & t'storms should pass Thursday as potential a line of t'storms, then period of rain.  Some severe risk is possible if the t'storms do indeed pass at peak heating.  Shear & dynamics aren't great, but enough with the heating for some severe risk, given the t'storms pass at the right time.

Total rainfall by Thursday night from early Monday morning should run 1.5-3.5" area-wide.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY:

They look dry, cooler & brighter with highs in the 60s to 70 & lows in the 40s.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY:

Front should move back northward as a warm front Saturday night-Sunday morning.  Some showers & t'storms should follow at times late Sunday through Monday.

Highs will warm to the upper 70s to 80s it appears.

Highs should range from 70 north to 80 south & around 78 at Greater Lafayette.

West Lafayette
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Monticello
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Heavy rain chances along with severe weather threat Sunday through Monday morning.
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