This morning ran 30-36.
This is typically the time of year for the last 32 in our area.
However, we still have a bit to wait for the last typical occurrence of 36. It is May 1-7.
Highs today reached 65-71.
A few showers & t'storms will increase to some scattered showers & t'storms tonight. Coverage will go up from 20% this evening to 45% overnight before ending by tomorrow morning. Lows tonight of 53-57 are likely (56 Greater Lafayette).
After a break for part of tomorrow, a few showers & t'storms may develop in the afternoon (30%), followed by widespread showers & storms tomorrow night.
There is the risk of a couple/few severe storms as a couple of broken lines or bands of t'storms pass through.
Area is currently in MARGINAL RISK, but some parameters suggests SLIGHT RISK for the western half of the viewing area.
Severe risk time frame is 7 p.m. to 2 a.m. right now. I will likely be able to whittle that down as I get a better idea on exact timing with new data arriving this evening & into tomorrow.
Threat would be wind, then hail, then tornado risk on higher to lower potential right now.
Highs of 70-76 (75 Greater Lafayette) are likely tomorrow, followed by 56-61 tomorrow night.
Simulated IR satellite projection shows the flare-up of storms Indiana to Texas:
Dry slot may wrap in Wednesday morning with some sunshine (west-southwest winds 10-20 mph) & 57-66, followed by clouds rolling in & showers by afternoon (with falling temperatures to 51-56). Afternoon-evening northwest winds may gust to 40 mph.
In the dry slot, a line of rather low-topped storms may develop & pivot around the center where the sun will be out with 60s to 70s (66 Greater Lafayette, then falling to 56 by 1 p.m., then 52 by 5 p.m.). This may lead to a pocket of MARGINAL severe risk for southern Indiana to western Ohio Wednesday midday-afternoon.
Showers will likely continue into Wednesday night to Thursday morning (with strong northwest winds gusting +30 mph), then exit the area in the afternoon. Thursday morning will be cold with 40s (Greater Lafayette 46), those strong winds & showers. Wind chills will be in the 30s.
TOTAL RAINFALL TONIGHT-THURSDAY MIDDAY SHOULD RUN 1-2" OVER THE VIEWING AREA.
Clearing will also occur.
However, due to more sun in the west & lots of clouds in the east & the rain exiting much later in the east compared to the western part of the viewing area, high temperatures will vary from 53-63 from east to west.
Thursday night looks chilly at 37-43 (42 Greater Lafayette) with wind diminishing & then turning to the east.
Looks like warm front will lift through with time Friday-Friday night with highs Friday at 64-72. No rainfall is currently associated with it, but we will monitor.
Saturday looks warm & windy with partly cloudy skies with highs 78-84.
Note the ridging in this IR satellite image, while storms just begin to flare up in Nebraska & in Texas to Oklahoma:
It appears that front will start to sink southward in the evening, so showers & storms are likely Saturday night. A few severe storms are possible.
The main area of severe weather risk Saturday night is Kansas, Oklahoma & Missouri (ENHANCED RISK parameters), however, SLIGHT RISK parameters show up in our area. Risk of a couple/few storms of severe wind &/or hail are possible.
Another round is possible Sunday.
Some showers & t'storms will taper by Monday afternoon as front sinks to the south & wind turns to the northeast.
Some severe weather risk will likely return off & one Tuesday-Thursday of next week.
So, warmer, wetter, stormy pattern is ahead to early May.
However, colder, drier regime should return after this wet spell.
We should then turn warmer & wetter than normal again.