April 25, 11:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Brief chill, bit warming with showers & storms down the road in a complicated forecast.

Posted: Apr 26, 2019 9:17 PM
Updated: Apr 27, 2019 12:50 AM

Highs today reached 61-66 with peak wind gusts of up to 39 mph.

Patchy frost is possible over the northeastern half of the viewing area early Saturday morning with 33-37 for lows.  Lows farther southwest will run 38-42 as some high & mid clouds rapidly increase west to east of the viewing area in the morning.

Highs Saturday will vary from 44 in the far northwest to 66 in the far south with warm front trying to move northward.

Highs in the 30s will occur not far from our northwestern counties near Chicago.

The highs of 60-66 in the south will tend to be late in the day, mainly in the evening. 

Winter Storm Warnings are up northwest of our area for this very late-season storm.

Significant, heavy, wet, wind-driven snow is likely with some places seeing 12" in northeastern Iowa, southwestern Wisconsin & far northwestern Illinois.

Here, one wave of rain will pass near midday-afternoon, followed by a break (mainly in the south), as the warm front tries to move northward.

Second round of some rain will feature a few embedded t'storms as the front then pushes back south.  Any isolated severe risk still looks to stay southwest of our area currently.

Some lingering rain may end as some snow along & north of US 24.  If there would be any accumulation, it would light & confined to only some grassy & elevated surfaces.

Winds will pick up with time tomorrow from the east in the north & southeast to south-southeast southward. 

With clearing skies, lows tomorrow night will drop to 31-33 in the north & 34-38 southward.  Winds will be strong from the north, then north-northeast up to 35 mph.  Wind chills will drop well down into the 20s.

0.60-1.30" of rain is possible in the north between the two rounds with lesser amounts south.

Sunday will turn brighter, but it will be breezy & a bit cool with 55-60.

Scattered cumulus clouds with deep blue skies will turn to some increasing high & mid clouds from the northwest by evening (as front lifts back northward as a warm front again).

Warm front will straddle area Monday with one main wave of rain & t'storms (heaviest north half of the viewing area).

It will be much cooler north of the warm front with 40s & 50s.  It will be much warmer south of it.

It is still a bit unclear on exactly where the front will set up, but it could literally split the area in half.  In the south, if not rain-cooled, 70s are possible.  With lots of rain in the north, it will be 20-25 degrees cooler.  I am going for 65 around Greater Lafayette, but it could be a situation where it is 60 at Battle Ground 65 in Lafayette & 70 at Stockwell.

Winds will be pretty strong from southeast & east north of the front & south to southwest south of the front.

We are on the edge of some isolated severe weather risk Monday from southern Tippecanoe County southward in the warmth.

The colors show severe risk magnitude as the Supercell Composite index.  Data points to MARGINAL RISK south of the warm front.

There could be some showers/storms Tuesday morning, then a main round late afternoon &/or evening.

The big question is how far north does the warm front get?  If it gets as far north as this model has, then much of the area could be 77-81.

However, lack of clarity so many days out is going to keep me with more of a status quo forecast.  I am going to focus on the uncertainty of the temperature forecast in my wording (as 30 miles of the warm front shift would cause big changes in temperature).

I am sticking with 50s north of the warm front in the north, then 70s to 80 south with around 65 in Greater Lafayette.

With warm front over the area Tuesday night, temperatures will vary from 48 north to 65 south.  I went with 60 for Greater Lafayette.

All areas along & south of the warm front show potential of MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK of severe based on the current forecast parameters.

Again, coverage of the risk will be determined by how far north the warm front gets.

Wednesday is a bit unclear temperature-wise, but there is increasing consensus that the warm front will get far enough north of at least Greater Lafayette that I can bump temperatures up in the Tuesday night-Wednesday time frame.

Data suggests a weakening of the shear Wednesday as streak of strong flow aloft exits, so parameters suggest MARGINAL RISK of severe weather at BEST for part of the area.

Front may move back northward Thursday with warmth & some showers & t'storms possible.

Front may move south of the area with time Friday (& showers & t'storms will exit), but as quickly as the front is buckled southward, it will quickly buckle back northeastward.

Late Friday night-Saturday morning will feature the warm front coming in from the west with increasing clouds.

Warm front may should lift back northward next Sunday, increasing our winds & turning them to the south.  Temperatures should begin to warm nicely.

Severe risk will tend to line up well west & southwest of us next Sunday.  It appears that MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK parameters are in place there.  Despite a good deal of dynamics & shear, the surface instability may be tapered by the recycling of some dry air emanating from the Appalachians & Upper South.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
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Kokomo
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Rensselaer
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Frankfort
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Delphi
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Monticello
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Logansport
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Warm Start, but Cooler Finish with Scattered Showers.
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