April 24, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update

A bit of rain, but the bigger rainfall arrives later next week along with some severe weather risk at times.

Posted: Apr 24, 2019 2:50 PM
Updated: Apr 24, 2019 6:38 PM

It was a chilly morning with lows 35-44 with some patchy frost in the northeast.

Today, highs have run 57-65 with the warmest temperatures in our far northwestern areas.

We have seen a few isolated showers & sprinkles today with partly to mostly cloudy skies.

More in the way of some scattered showers & even t'showers will pass this evening & into tonight.  They will exit with time Thursday morning.

As a warm front tries to advance northward, our southern areas may even rise a couple of degrees later tonight.  Lows will vary over the area from 47 north to 56 southwest & around 50 in Greater Lafayette.

Thursday will feature some scattered showers & t'showers early, then some clearing, followed by some late day showers & t'showers.  These will last into Thursday night.

There will be quite a bit of variability with the rainfall due to the scattered, convective-like nature of it. It will run from a few hundreths to 0.30" for much of the area. However, in areas that happen to get under heavier t'showers, you could exceed 0.50" of rainfall.  Best chance of those types of heavier totals by Thursday night will be over the southeastern part of the viewing area.

Friday will turn mostly sunny & it will reach 64-69, but it will be windy with northwest winds 20-35 mph. This, despite the sunshine, the dry air & wind will make it feel a bit cooler than the actual high temperature.

Temperatures over northeastern Jasper to Pulaski counties may fall into the upper 50s in the mid to late afternoon as cool air from Lake Michigan blows in on those northwest winds.

With winds diminishing & clear skies for part of the night until high/mid clouds increase late, lows will drop to 38-45 Friday night-early Saturday morning.

It is a complicated Saturday-next Friday due to position of a warm front that will separate winter/spring from summer & it will be draped right over the area multiple times, resulting in wide-ranging weather over the area.  There will be multiple situations where it is 50s & rain north, snow & 32 in southern Wisconsin to 70s & 80s in our southern areas & southward with storm & even severe weather risk.  Eventually, it will push northward, bathing everyone in the area in warmth, but it will take time.

So..................let's break it all down.

Showers & even a few t'storms will arrive by early Saturday afternoon.  The heaviest, most-widespread rainfall action will be in our northern areas.

Warm front will separate area between 50 to the 50s north & around 62 in Greater Lafayette to potentially 70 in the far south. 

Some severe weather risk will occur outside of our viewing area to our southwest.

Front should sink south of our area Sunday, leaving us with highs 58-64 with partly cloudy skies & dry weather.

The front will be hung up in the area Monday with a round of rainfall & some t'storms, especially along & north of the warm front.  Temperatures may vary a lot, depending on the position of the front.  It could be 40s & 50s north & 70s south.  Exact position of the front is key to exactly what temperatures unfold.

Some severe risk may develop nearby or in a part of the area.

Front position Tuesday will determine the exact numbers in the area.  Again, it could be a situation of 50s north & 80 south with a wave of showers & t'storms along & north of that front.

Some severe risk may develop nearby or in a part of the area.

The trend is to shift the warm front north of the entire viewing area by mid &/or late week, bathing the area in 77-81 with lows 60-65.

The exact timing of when this occurs is in question, but as it does so, it would tend to pull any rounds of showers & storms north of the area.

However, as the front moves back in from the west & northwest, more showers & storms will return & may bring severe weather risk.

So, the asterisks on the high temperatures Saturday & Monday through Wednesday make note of the variability of temperatures over the area on those days.  This is due to the position of the warm front.  As it wobbles back & forth, it will run 70s to 80 south of the front & 40s, 50s & 60s along & north of it.  There will be some days that it may be 40s & 50s in the north & 80 in the south & Greater Lafayette could straddle the front with 60 at Battle Ground & 76 at Stockwell.

Unfortunately, a total of 2-5" of rainfall is possible from now (Wednesday 6 p.m. to next Friday).  So, we have gone from normal rainfall expected in the period to above normal all due to front just not moving far enough northward for several days, keeping rounds of showers & t'storms in the area passing at times.

This appears to be tied to some blocking over Greenland, which is not letting the front surge northward as quickly.  Otherwise, we'd be drier overall & everyone would be warm at 77-82 for 6 consecutive days.

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