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April 22, 3 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your now to Summer outlook.....

Posted: Apr 21, 2021 9:21 PM
Updated: Apr 22, 2021 2:57 PM

Snowfall totals were largely 0.5-2.5".  Overall all totals varied from 0.4-4.4".

Where clouds hung on, lows were 30-33 Wednesday morning, where that hole in the clouds continued for a long period of time, lows dropped to 21-26.  This led to another spring of vegetation damage there.

From Randy Brist, this is not a lava field in Iceland or Hawaii, but planted fields here that have rolling plumes of steam.  This is from the heat in the warm soil with the cold snow & cold air on top.  It is like a warm beverage out on a cold day.

Highs Wednesday reached 41-53 with rain/snow/graupal (small, soft CoCo Puff-like hail) showers with isolated thunder & lighting & gusty winds to 43 mph.

Lows this morning dropped to 28-34.

34  Flora Municipal Airport

34  Purdue University Airport

34  Galveston Airport

34  Rochester-Fulton County Airport

33  Covington

33  Attica

32  Logansport-Cass County Airport

32  Peru Municipal Airport

32  Crawfordsville

32  New Market

32  Delphi

32  Frankfort Municipal Airport

30  Kokomo Municipal Airport

29  Fowler

29  Morocco

29  Grissom ARB

29  Kentland Municipal Airport

28  Winamac

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With partly cloudy skies becoming mostly sunny, highs today should reach 51-60 with gusty west winds to 34 mph at times.

Tonight will feature increasing high & mid clouds from the southwest & west with lows 37-43.

A period of mostly virga is expected Friday morning with mostly overcast skies.  If any of this would happen to reach the ground it would be a few sprinkles or a few isolated showers.

The overcast should thin in the midday to afternoon hours for some dim sunshine with strong southerly winds to 32 mph.

Highs of 61-68 are expected.

Showers will develop late Friday evening-night near & after 8 p.m.

This should gradually turn to a widespread, steady moderate rain area-wide by 6 a.m. Saturday.

Lows of 47-52 are likely with south to then southeast winds to 28 mph.

Heaviest rain looks to fall in the 11 a.m.-2 p.m. time frame Saturday, then it tends to taper off to just a few isolated showers around & after 5-6 p.m.

Wind will turn to the east & decrease to 10 mph & then northeast to north & northwest with gusts to 30 mph.

I cut highs from 58-63 to 55-60.  In northern Newton & Jasper counties, lake front will come in during the evening, dropping you to 42-46 while the 50s will be widespread elsewhere.

Rainfall amounts for this system seem to be trending upward.  I went for 0.25-0.50" initially, but it now looks like the potential of getting 0.50-1" is increasing.

Widespread severe weather risk is up from southern Kansas to Texas all the way to North Carolina to northern Florida Friday-Saturday for multiple rounds of severe storms (but not here).

Sunday looks good with sunshine & 61-68.

Sunday will be the better of the two weekend days.

Monday looks windy & warm with sunshine & 76-81.  Lows Monday night will run 54-60.

Tuesday looks windy & warm with south-southwest winds gusting to 41 mph & highs 81-85.

Severe weather outbreak is expected Iowa to Texas Tuesday-Wednesday of next week.

The leftovers of the severe outbreak will pass likely Wednesday night.  Parameters are such that SLIGHT RISK may be up to the state line with Illinois & MARGINAL RISK west of US 31. 

We will monitor.

Some redevelopment of storms is possible Thursday PM, depending on how much debri cloudiness is left over.

Parameters suggest MARGINAL RISK east of US 41 & SLIGHT RISK in eastern Indiana to western Ohio perhaps.

Highs should run in the 81-85 range Wednesday & 75-80 range Thursday.

Friday looks dry with 70-75.

Storms return Sunday after a nice 70s Saturday.  80s are possible Sunday.

Parameters seen in model & analog solutations suggest MARGINAL RISK of severe here.

May 3-6 looks active here with multiple rounds of showers & storms with warm, humid to muggy weather with 70s & 80s.

May 5 shows highest severe risk here, all based on model & analog data. 

On that day, strong upper trough, surface cold front, 200-300 m2/s-2 helicity in lower 3 km, steep 5,000-12,000' lapse rate of 9C/km, up to 1500 J/kg of surface CAPE all equate severe signal.

The upper trough & upper jet streak shows up easily below via GFS.  It exhibits a negative tilt conducive to severe weather. 

Only fly in the ointment for bigger severe weather is lack-luster mid-level lapse rate & that the greatest CAPE isn't necessarily deep.  It seems to be in the 5,000-10,000' layer.

Nonetheless, parameters suggest SLIGHT to ENHANCED RISK for severe weather.  This would be the highest risk in our area since ENHANCED to MODERATE RISK with the Progressive Derecho back in August.

Cool-down with drier weather should follow roughly May 6-10.  Lows of 36-42 are possible.

Note the cool-down with the upper trough, then note how the ridging builds into the Plains by May 10-11 & moves toward our area, signaling big warm-up.

It continues to look like a lot of warmth mid to late May with one random cool-down thrown in the mix.

Severe weather is possible at time May 14-21 (with 80s to even some 90s possible) in a wetter-than-normal period, followed by drier pattern & brief cool-down (lows in the 40s).  Then, a lot of heat builds in May 27-31 with 90 to the 90s possible in a drier pattern.

Trend is still for hotter & drier than normal summer with best potential of the viewing area seeing 100 or 100s since 2012.  "Ring of Fire" pattern will be key.  If we can orient it into our area for extended periods of time, storm complexes & MCV triggers for storms will occur & help mitigate effects of overall drier set-up.

Tropics may help too as they look more active than normal, though not as active last year (which was record-breaking).

Summer precipitation anomaly trend (yellow below normal rainfall, green above normal, white near normal overall):

West Lafayette
Clear
40° wxIcon
Hi: 68° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 40°
Kokomo
Partly Cloudy
40° wxIcon
Hi: 65° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 40°
Rensselaer
Clear
36° wxIcon
Hi: 65° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 36°
Fowler
Clear
40° wxIcon
Hi: 66° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 40°
Williamsport
Clear
38° wxIcon
Hi: 67° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 38°
Crawfordsville
Clear
41° wxIcon
Hi: 66° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 41°
Frankfort
Partly Cloudy
41° wxIcon
Hi: 65° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 41°
Delphi
Partly Cloudy
37° wxIcon
Hi: 66° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 37°
Monticello
Clear
37° wxIcon
Hi: 65° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 37°
Logansport
Clear
37° wxIcon
Hi: 65° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 37°
Warmer, Mild Conditions Ahead
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Cases: 731810

Reported Deaths: 13445
CountyCasesDeaths
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Hancock8301141
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Warrick7785155
Floyd7670178
Grant7067174
Wayne7056199
Boone6704101
Morgan6582139
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Marshall6062111
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Cass5816105
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Ohio56811
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