Overall, there is good news for farmers in this forecast. Soils will dry, we will turn more consistently warm with dry spells. With time & a great deal of fieldwork will commence.
High temperatures & weather conditions varied greatly from southeast & east to northwest & west Saturday. Highs ranged from 45 at Kokomo to 65 at Morocco & 64 at Kentland!
With some dense fog in the south & east this morning, after that rain Saturday, frost occurred. Lows dropped 29-33 for a good chunk of the area. The northwest was warmer as warm advection took hold.
Climatologically-speaking, this should be the last freeze for much of the area.
Climatologically-speaking, we do not normally see our last occurrence of 36 degree in spring until May 1-7.
Today is a major change area-wide with highs from 69-77.
The high temperature graphic will be put up by 10 p.m. as the official highs come in.
Some increasing clouds will occur tonight with lows varying from 40 east to around 50 in the west & mid to upper 40s in the heart of the viewing area.
Very dry air (low dew points), less cloudiness & light to calm winds will cause the chilly night in the eastern areas.
Some warm advection with a light, light south-southeast wind & some cloudiness will prevent the west from getting quite a chilly (despite very dry air or low dew points).
With clouds/sun mixed & skies varying from mostly sunny to sunny to partly cloudy to mostly cloudy off & on through out the day, highs will run 75-80.
Winds will be strong from the south & south-southwest at 15-32 mph.
After lows only 58-64 Monday night, a few isolated showers (25%) are possible Tuesday morning, followed by a few spotty storms (30%) along the cold front (mainly in the south to southeastern half of the viewing area midday to afternoon).
Behind that cold front, temperatures will fall & the temperature fall will be enhanced by a lake breeze front moving south-southeastward on north to north-northwest winds at 15-30 mph.
By 5 p.m., temperatures will run near 51 in the northwest to 54 at Fowler, 55 at Monticello, around 60 at Lafayette to 62 in the far southeast. Low clouds will also be overspreading the area, leading to a cool, blustery, gray evening after highs of 61-71 northwest to southeast before falling.
It appears that any risk of an isolated severe storm will be south of our area where greater heating will occur & the front will move through at the peak heating of late afternoon-early evening.
With some clearing, we should tank to 37-44 (41 Greater Lafayette) Tuesday night.
Wednesday looks good with mostly sunny highs & highs 62-67 with a light east-northeast wind at 5-8 mph.
After 42-48 Wednesday, Thursday looks like more sun north & more clouds south with highs 67 south to 73 north & a light south-southeast wind at 3-6 mph.
A few showers are possible in the south on the edge of a storm system south of our area.
Friday looks good with mostly sunny skies & highs 69-76 & north-northeast winds at 8-13 mph.
Saturday looks great with lots of sunshine & 74-78 & south-southeast to south winds at 9-15 mph.
Sunday looks warm & windy with some scattered storms late with partly cloudy skies & highs 78-81. South to south-southwest winds will likely run 15-30 mph. Dew points looks to soar to 60-64 by evening after running 55-60 much of the day.
Shear, dynamics, instability & forcing laid atop each other shows the opportunities for severe next Sunday to the start of mid-May (before we cool & stabilize for a bit mid-May).
Looks warmer than normal (overall) to early May.
Looks near normal rainfall-wise with below normal rainfall not far away.
It will cool likely below normal in mid-May, but when you take some of the above just prior, the below & then the above normal temperatures after in the May 12-19 period, it averages slightly above normal in this map.
However, a night of 36-44 is possible in mid-May.
Rainfall looks to average below normal.
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