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April 20, 12:30 PM Weather Forecast Update

Snow, freezing, graupal & big warm-up ahead.

Posted: Apr 20, 2021 11:53 AM
Updated: Apr 20, 2021 3:34 PM

Temperatures are 32-43 over the viewing area as of 12 p.m. from northwest to south.

It is now snowing at Rensselaer & Morocco with 32.  Elsewhere, it is some showers & drizzle.

With time this afternoon to evening, everyone will drop to 32-35 as the more widespread rain to snow moves eastward from Illinois.

Snow may be heavy at times this evening before the steady snow tapers from northwest to southeast across the viewing area now to 6 p.m.

Ground temperatures are warm, but snow should come down heavy enough for accumulation.

For a lot of the viewing the transition to ALL SNOW will not occur until around or after 2:30 p.m., though it will mix in with rain before that.

The snow should be out of the viewing area by 11:30 p.m. & out of Greater Lafayette by 10 p.m.

So the overall duration is relatively short, but intensity heavy for a time.

Much of the viewing area is 0.5-1.5" of snow, mainly on grassy & elevated surfaces.  The 1-2.5" amounts will tend to be over eastern Clinton, Howard to Miami & Fulton counties & then northern White, Cass, Pulaski, Newton & Jasper counties.

Lows of 28-32 are likely tonight with partly to mostly cloudy skies & a north-northwest wind at 5-11 mph.  I am forecasting 30-32 for the south & west & 28-30 for the north & northeast.

For much of the viewing area the duration of 32 or less will be 10 hours.  In the northwest, it will end up being more like 16 hours, but we never really get cold enough for major damage (say 23, 25, 26....).

The worst thing that could happen is if skies completely clear area-wide for much of the night with just a little bit of snow pack.  That would lead to widespread lows well down into the 20s. 

Right now, it looks like cloudiness with a light wind will help.

Lots of cold air aloft & low freezing levels with strong late April sun angle will resulted in scattered rain, snow & graupal showers tomorrow (CoCo Puff-sized soft hail).  An isolated rumble of thunder & lightning discharge or two is possible.

Highs of 43-51 are expected with mostly cloudy skies & a light northwest breeze.

Lows Wednesday night-Thursday morning of 27-32 are expected with frost amidst partly cloudy skies.  Much of the viewing area will be at 32 or less for about 11-12 hours with some areas as long as 14 hours.

However, we don't see 23, 24 or say 26, which would be much more devastating. 

As long as we don't see skies clear for the entire night, we are in better shape.

The worst thing that could happen is if we are completely clear all night with a light to calm wind, which would lead us to tank farther into the 20s.

Thursday looks much warmer with sunshine & 53-61, followed by 32-37 Thursday night with some frost.

Friday looks warmer with increasing clouds & 60-66, then 40s with some showers Friday night to Saturday morning.

Showers look to taper with time Saturday with 58-63 & lows Saturday night at 37-43.

A lot of severe weather is possible from Texas to South Carolina with SLIGHT to ENHANCED RISK parameters Friday-Saturday.

Sunday looks good with 61-68, followed by sunshine & 69-76 Monday with southwest wind.

80s are possible Tuesday,Wednesday & Thursday with strong south winds.

A couple of rounds of storms are possible Wednesday & Thursday with severe weather risk.

Preliminary parameters suggest MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK here.

However, the highest risk with the system will tend to be Iowa to Arkansas Monday & Tuesday.

More rounds of storms are possible May 3-5 in our area.  Severe weather is possible, as well.  The highest risk for us appears to be evolving for around May 4-5.

Preliminary parameters suggests ENHANCED RISK here, which the highest risk I have seen in soundings for our area so far in 2021.  Forecast parameters in all forecasts for our area I have made have barely made SLIGHT RISK criteria.  So, this is a first for the year with such risk.

A look back reveals that the last time I mentioned ENHANCED RISK potential for the viewing area was August 2020, though preliminary forecasts of MARGINAL to some SLIGHT have been made since August.  We have officially only had severe t'storms in the viewing area twice since August:  A few weeks ago with 1" hail in southeastern Montgomery County & some wind gusts measured up to 64 mph from line of storms on November 15.

Overall, the risk May 2-5 will cover a large area from Louisiana & eastern Texas to Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Indiana & Michigan.

Highs will be in the 80s here.

Cooler, drier weather is still expected May 6-10 with lows 36-41 on a couple to few nights.

We should turn active, stormy, wet & very warm for mid-May with multiple opportunities for severe weather in the area.

By the end of May, we should be in hot, drier regime with early onset of summer temperatures in the 90s.

Rainfall looks below normal for that time:

45

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Warmer, Mild Conditions Ahead
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