March 2021 was much warmer than normal. It was also wetter than normal here.
The viewing area was snow-free for March, unlike the past several years:
March 2021 ended up as the 6th warmest on record since 1879 in Greater Lafayette. It also saw the greatest number of days at or above 70 since the historic, warmest March on record of 2012.
Top 10 Warmest Marches
1. 56.6 2012
2. 53.6 1946
3. 51.0 1945
4. 50.0 1921
5. 49.4 1910
6. 48.6 2021
7. 48.5 1929
8. 48.4 1973
9. 48.0 1935
10. 47.8 1938
Now, this brief cold snap has arrived (after up to 0.3" snow in our north & northeastern counties yesterday morning from lake effect snow shower/squall band).....
Our low at our WLFI ob site dropped to 20 this morning. Not far from the weather station are a few apple trees & they are at about the "tight cluster" bud stage. At 21, there is 90% fruit loss. How advanced your apple trees are is dependent upon the cultivar & where you are in the viewing area. The southwestern counties are farthest along in vegetation, so they would be affected the most.
Thoughts are that there was likely 10-40% over a lot of the viewing area (except far north & northeast) with locally up to 90% in southwest.
At the Purdue Airport, the low was 21. The record for Purdue University/Purdue Airport back to 1879 is 10 set in the very cold late winter to spring of 1899 (there was one of the worst Arctic outbreaks on record in February 1899).
Lows ranged from 18-23.
23 Rochester-Fulton County Airport; Kentland Muncipal Airport
21 Purdue University Airport; 6 SE Covington; Peru Municipal Airport; Flora Municipal Airport; Crawfordsville; 2 S New Market
20 WLFI Ob Site; 3 E Attica; Pine Village; 3 E Fowler; Remington
19 Logansport-Cass County Airport; Grissom ARB; Kokomo Municipal Airport; Frankfort Municipal Airport; Flora Municipal Airport
18 Monticello-White County Airport; Delphi; Morocco
OUTLOOK High & low in parentheses ( ) are the Greater Lafayette numbers.....
TODAY-SATURDAY, APRIL 10:
Today: Mostly sunny-sunny. High 47-56 (54). Low Tonight: 29-36 (34)
Tomorrow: Sunny. Windy (SW G30-40 mph). High: 64-71 (69). Low: 37-46 (45)
Sunday: Mostly sunny-sunny. Not so windy (SW G20-26 mph). High: 70-77 (75). Low: 46-55 (52)
Monday: Partly cloudy. Windy (SW G 30-40 mph). High: 74-80 (77). Low: 55-60 (55)
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. Windy (SW G 30-35 mph). High 77-82 (81)
Tuesday night: Partly to mostly cloudy. Windy (SSW G 25-35 mph). Few sct'd showers & storms. Low 58-63 (62)
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Windy (SSE G26-32 mph). Some scattered showers & storms. High 73-78 (77).
Wednesday night: Mostly cloudy. Windy (S G26-32 mph). Some scattered showers & storms. Low 55-62 (61).
Thursday: Mostly cloudy. Windy (S G 28-32 mph). Periods of showers & storms. Risk of a few severe storms 6-9 p.m. (Up to SLIGHT RISK parameters). My analog & CIPS analog supports this notion.
Thursday night through Saturday: Mostly cloudy with periodic showers & storms. Any severe risk shifts just south of area. Less wind. Highs 64-72 (67-71), lows 47-57 (52-56).
TOTAL RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY: 1-3" (1.75-2.50") Band of 4-7" possible northwest & southeast of our area with flooding. We need to monitor closely & make sure that band does not set up in our area.
Sunday, April 10: Partly cloudy. High 60-66 (65). Low 37-44 (41).
Monday, April 11: Mostly sunny. High 65-70 (68).
Monday night, April 11-12: Increasing clouds. Low 43-50 (48).
Tuesday, April 12: Partly cloudy. High 65-70 (68) Low 41-50 (47)
Wednesday, April 13: Increasing clouds & breezy (SSE G20-26 mph). High 66-72 (71)
Wednesday night, April 13-14: Mostly cloudy & breeze (SSE G22-30 mph). Sct'd showers & storms. low 50-57 (56).
Thursday, April 14: Showers & storms. Some severe risk possible (MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK parameters) Windy (S to NW G 26-35 mph). High 68-77 (76). CIPS data keeps risk in the Plains, my analog shows it extending eastward to our area.
Thursday night, April 14-15: Clearing. Windy (NW G30-40 mph). Low 38-43 (41).
Friday, April 15: Partly cloudy. Windy (NW G30-40 mph). High 57-64 (63). Low 33-38 (37).
Saturday, April 16: Mostly sunny. Windy (NNW G30-40 mph). High 54-62 (60). Low 31-36 (34).
Sunday, April 17: Mostly sunny. Breezy (SE G22-27 mph). High 65-71 (68). Low 50-58 (56).
Monday, April 18: Clouding up. Windy (S G30-40 mph). Few sct'd showers & isolated storms (clipper-type system). High 68-76 (74). Lack of solid instability & displaced steep low-level lapse rate precludes any mention of severe (despite good shear & dynamics). Only way this will change is if steep lapse rates (cold pocket) are displaced atop warm sector & ahead of cold front.
Monday night, April 18-19: Showers ending. Windy (NW G30-40 mph). Low 36-42 (39).
Tuesday, April 19: Partly cloudy. Windy (NNW 30-40 mph) High 53-60 (58). Low 29-32 (31).
Wednesday, April 20: Sunny, then increasing clouds. E wind becoming SE to S. High 58-64 (62). Low 38-46 (45).
Thursday, April 21: Partly cloudy. Breezy (S G26-35 mph). High 65-72 (70). Low 45-56 (54).
April 22-May 1: LOTS of severe weather & severe weather outbreaks in the Plains to Lower & Mid-Mississippi Valley.
We look warmer than normal & wetter than normal. Preliminarly analog & long-range model data show tendency for greatest severe weather risk here for the period in the April 26-27 time frame.
Thoughts here are of slight cool-down May 2-3, then warm-up with showers/storms May 4-5, then "Black Locust Winter" May 6-10 with some patchy frost with lows 32-39 (likely around 36 Greater Lafayette).
Warmer, wetter, severe weather pattern with greater & consistent severe risk here shows up May 11-16.
After May 17, looks like much of the substantial severe weather & rainfall risk shifts northwestward to the Dakotas & Minnesota to Iowa & Wisconsin & Ontario like July.
We may have a renegade event here, however.
Nonetheless, it is definitely & hot, dry trend in late May with early onset of summer temperatures of 90 to the 90s. Looks like the hottest late May weather since the record heat of 2018 & before that, the near/record heat of 2012.
June looks hotter & drier than normal with potential drought. The way this would change is IF we can get the "Ring of Fire" pattern with rounds of showers & storms with severe weather across our area, rather than areas northwest, north & northeast of us.
That would be the deciding factor.
Even in the hot, dry pattern here we will see some storms, but if the current pattern continues to hold in analog & model solutions, they will be more few & far between with dominant track north of the area & more airmass, pulsey storms than more typical, widespread June storms.
July looks hotter & drier than normal with drought risk, but "Ring of Fire" will be monitored.
August looks hotter & drier than normal, but the tropics could be of great help & the "Ring of Fire" pattern will be monitored.
In all three months, risk of Progressive Derecho will be monitored, as pattern is good for one to get into our viewing area or nearby.