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April 19, 1:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Raw, cold & wet to bright & warm weather ahead. Here is a look beyond to late May.

Posted: Apr 19, 2019 12:23 PM
Updated: Apr 19, 2019 1:34 PM

0.80-2.50" of rainfall has fallen over the viewing area since yesterday.

Flood Warnings are up for the Wabash & Wildcat from Carroll & Tippecanoe to Warren & Fountain counties.  Flood Advisory is up on the Kankakee from the rainfall.

Note how much of the Midwest & Plains are experiencing river flooding.

Rainfall has been gradually pulling eastward today, but there will still be some around at times through the afternoon, especially in the eastern & southeastern part of the viewing area.

Temperatures will be in the cold 40s with wind chills in the 30s with gusty north winds.

Some pockets of clearing are possible in the northwest later today.

Much of the rain tonight will be just outside of the viewing area tonight with a little bit getting into our southeast & only a few bits of drizzle elsewhere.

Some pockets of clearing area possible with lows tonight 34-38 with brisk winds 15-30 mph from the north dropping wind chills to as low as 22 degrees.

And yes, that is some wet snow in southeastern Indiana, Kentucky & Tennessee to North Carolina!  Potential is there for some freak local accumulations of +2" as dynamic cooling takes over & gets snow to the surface.

This makes for two significant waves of cold & some snow here in this mid-April.  This is the last of such weather so far south, however.  This is also the last of such chill in our area until October to November.

Rain will pivot back westward some tomorrow.  It may turn pretty rainy in the eastern part of the area with a few showers off & on in the heart of the area & dry conditions in the far west with some sunshine.

Cloudy skies may hang on for the rest of the area until late afternoon-evening.  At that point, a slow migration of the clearing line eastward will occur.

There will be a big difference in high temperatures over the viewing area Saturday from 45 at Kokomo to 60 at Kentland, Ambia & Pence & around 54 in Greater Lafayette to Monticello & Winamac.

There will be clouds & rain in the east, but sun in the west & a combination of clouds & some sun & flirtations of a few showers in the middle.  Greater Lafayette would be right in the middle with combinations of both worlds.  So, count on lots of clouds, a few showers, wind, coolness with 54 & some clearing at times, mainly late.

Everyone will be windy with north winds 20-40 mph, but wind chills will vary from 30s in the far east & southeast to 50s in the west.

The frost & freezing risk is going up for Saturday night, especially in the heart of the area, south & eastward.  Winds will go light to calm as skies clear.

Lows will vary from 31 to 38 from east & southwest to northwest.

A major change will take place as we skyrocket to highs 69-75 with sunshine & southwest winds 10-20 mph!

Monday looks windy & warm with partly cloudy skies & highs 77-81 after 50s in the morning.  I cut back rainfall potential to 20% or isolated t'storms.  It is looking more & more like there will be two waves of showers & t'storms & they should both are tending to concentrate on Tuesday.

An isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out, but any more widespread severe risk looks to stay west & southwest of our area (per latest data).  Highs Tuesday will run in the 70s after near 61 in the morning hours.

Things do look more progressive for Wednesday.  So, I kept any rainfall tied to the morning & then dried it out in the afternoon (with sunshine) with highs 63-67, followed by 39-44 Wednesday night.

Thursday looks good with sunshine & highs 67-75 with lows Thursday night at 44-48.

It looks WARM the end of next week through the next weekend

Not how temperatures next weekend show a trend to run 10-15 degrees above normal.  Normal for that time period is around 70, so highs of 80-85 are possible.

After dry air, rapid advection of the highest dew points of 2019 are suggested with the warmth.  Dew points of 64-67 are possible, making it feel quite humid by Monday, April 29.

Storm system with t'storms is possible at some point Monday or Tuesday of the week after next (April 29-30).

Higher dew points, higher surface CAPE & turning of winds with height with rather strong wind fields aloft do suggest severe risk around April 29-30 with that warmest, most humid air of 2019 so far.

Brief burst of some cooler air should follow before we heat right back up again & higher humidity streams back in with approach of another storm system.

This one could bring t'storms & some severe weather risk near May 4 or 5.  Note how the Bermuda high pump returns & re-establishes itself pretty quickly.  This will pull the warmth & moisture northward.

The cool behind that system is such a brief glancing blow & there is such warmth on either side of it (in terms of timing) that the CFSv2 still shows above normal temperatures April 29-May 6.

April 26-30 are so warm that it completely counteracts any cool May 1-3 in the CFS, as well.

APRIL 26-MAY 3 AND MAY 3-10 TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES (HOW MUCH ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL........OR NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIODS):

After warmth, storms, severe risk in early May, mid-May looks to turn cooler & drier before we heat up late May with return of storm risk.

There looks like a dry window in May, however, with tranquility of many mostly sunny, calm days.  That is the continued trend anyway.

Rainfall looks near normal late April through early May until we go below normal for a time in mid-May.  We will tend to go back to normal in late May.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
Clear
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Hi: 80° Lo: 60°
Feels Like: 82°
Kokomo
Overcast
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Rensselaer
Scattered Clouds
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Fowler
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Williamsport
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Crawfordsville
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Frankfort
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Delphi
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Monticello
Clear
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Hi: 81° Lo: 60°
Feels Like: 79°
Logansport
Scattered Clouds
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Hi: 80° Lo: 62°
Feels Like: 79°
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