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April 18, 12 PM Weather Forecast Update

Showers to snow with freeze.....then 80s with severe weather risk!

Posted: Apr 18, 2021 11:37 AM
Updated: Apr 18, 2021 4:20 PM

Lows this morning ran 30-40 with frost, especially over our northern & northeastern counties.

A few isolated showers to even t'showers are possible this afternoon-this evening as cumulus clouds bubble up in the colder air aloft with plenty of heating, though dry air will prevent coverage from exceeding 20-30%.  A chunk of it will be virga.

Highs of 63-70 are expected.

With partly cloudy skies & southwest winds to 37 mph, highs tomorrow should reach 65-73 after lows tonight in the 40s.

Ana-front will come in late Monday night-Tuesday morning.  Ana-front is a front with most of the precipitation BEHIND the front.  Kata-front is more typical of cold fronts with much of the precipitation ahead of & along the front.

Wave of low pressure will ride the front & 70s ahead of the front & the colder air behind it will result in strong frontagenetical forcing for heavy snowfall rates in a few narrow bands.

Note the band of gray, lower clouds showing where the front is in this simulated IR satellite imagery via NAM 3km model.

After highs in the 40s & 50s northwest to southeast, temperatures will quickly wet-bulb to 32-35 as precipitation falls through dry, colder air.

Showers will quickly go to steady snow (locally-heavy rates) Tuesday afternoon with strong north-northeast to northeast winds to 32 mph.

Snow should reach our far northwestern areas by noon Tuesday.

Snow line should reach Rochester to Monticello to Boswell by 3 p.m.

Snow line should run Logansport to Lafayette to Covington by 4:30 p.m.

Line should align Peru to Frankfort to Crawfordsville by 5:30 p.m.

The entire viewing area should be in snow by 6 p.m.

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However, back edge of the snow should reach Morocco by 6:30 p.m.

Back edge should run Rensselaer to Covington by 7:30 p.m.

End of the snow should reach Winamac to Lafayette to Veedersburg by 8:30 p.m.

End of steady snow will reach Peru to Darlington around 10 p.m.

All steady snow should be out of the viewing area by 11:30 p.m.

SO, SNOW DURATION IS ABOUT 6 HOURS FOR ANY GIVEN LOCATION.

After the snow, partly to mostly cloudy skies will occur with just a few flurries & snow showers possible to Wednesday morning with lows 28-32.

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Ground temperatures will be warm & temperatures will run 32-35 during the snow, however, snow will come down hard enough for accumulation on grassy & elevated surfaces like car tops, trees, signs & roofs.

If it comes down hard enough for long enough duration, some accumulation will occur on roadways, especially in heavier accumulations farther northward.

At this point, it appears 1" or less of snow may whiten the grass over the area.  Up to 2-3" may occur in a band along & north of US 24.

With lots of cold, cold air aloft Wednesday, towering cumulus with partly to mostly cloudy skies, north winds to 32 mph & a scattered of rain, snow & graupal showers & squalls are expected Wednesday.  Some of the graupal showers will have strong, gusty, downdraft type winds to 40-45 mph.  An isolated rumble of thunder or two with lightning is possible.

Highs of 40-48 are likely.

Wednesday night's temperature will be determined by how much clearing occurs.  If we are completely clear & the wind diminishes, then we are looking at a highly-damaging 24-28 night.

Watch for a few slick spots as moisture re-freezes on some roadways.

If we would happen to get to 24-28, it would be the third consecutive year with a highly-damaging freeze with vegetation so advanced for the season, making it seem as if trying to raise fruit in west-central to southern Indiana is a losing battle! 

In 2016 & 2017 we didn't have any issues, nor did we in 2015, however.

This also marks the fourth year in a row with a historically-late snow, too!  We had snow in mid-April last year, the year before........we had up to 6" of snow on Easter in 2018!

However, it appears that skies will be partly to mostly cloudy at this point with 28-32 with a breeze.

Thursday looks much warmer with highs 53-62 with mostly sunny skies.

After 35-40 Thursday night, highs of 60-68 are expected Friday with increasing clouds & strong southwest winds.

Some showeres are possible Friday night-Saturday morning with 40s to 50s for lows.

Saturday looks partly cloudy with highs 55-61 with strong northwest winds.

One more frost is likely:  Saturday night.

Lows of 31-36 are expected.

Warm front should pass through Sunday & we could see 80 in the viewing area by Monday, April 27.

Some severe weather risk is possible Tuesday evening & then again Thursday with highs warming to the 80s.

I still think some cooler weather will occur with lows 36-41 May 6-10 after a very warm, stormy stretch.

A warm, stormy stretch should occur in mid-May, followed by hotter, drier weather in late May with an early onset of summer heat of 90 to the 90s.

West Lafayette
Clear
40° wxIcon
Hi: 68° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 40°
Kokomo
Partly Cloudy
40° wxIcon
Hi: 65° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 40°
Rensselaer
Clear
34° wxIcon
Hi: 65° Lo: 33°
Feels Like: 34°
Fowler
Clear
40° wxIcon
Hi: 66° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 40°
Williamsport
Clear
37° wxIcon
Hi: 67° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 37°
Crawfordsville
Clear
41° wxIcon
Hi: 66° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 41°
Frankfort
Partly Cloudy
41° wxIcon
Hi: 65° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 41°
Delphi
Partly Cloudy
37° wxIcon
Hi: 66° Lo: 35°
Feels Like: 37°
Monticello
Clear
37° wxIcon
Hi: 65° Lo: 37°
Feels Like: 37°
Logansport
Clear
36° wxIcon
Hi: 65° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 36°
Warmer, Mild Conditions Ahead
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