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April 17, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update

Some severe weather risk early Thursday morning & again next week.

Posted: Apr 17, 2019 4:10 PM
Updated: Apr 17, 2019 4:47 PM

Line/bow of storms with torrential rainfall is likely as this MCS moves through (MCS is an organized complex of rain & storms).

40 to 50 knots of effective shear with +50 knot low-level jet & a noted 70- to 90-knot 500 mb jet streak amidst temperatures 63-67 & dew points 61-65 (preceding the storms result in the severe risk.  Surface CAPE will be so-so at 500-1000 J/kg.  However, up to 1900 J/kg of elevated CAPE will result in pretty good lightning density with the storms.

It would not surprise me to see the Storm Prediction Center expand the SLIGHT RISK eastward to cover a good chunk of the viewing area.

Wherever you see the black lines in the t'storms, that is where the model indicates severe t'storm threshold being reached.

1-3" of rainfall is likely total by Friday.  A chunk of it may fall in the morning storms with a quick 1-1.5" of rainfall.

Friday looks rainy AM, then spotty rain, followed by some clearing late with highs 49-54 & then 32-36 Friday night to Saturday morning.

Weekend still looks good with mostly sunny skies Saturday with 57-63, then partly cloudy Sunday with 68-75 (& breezy from the south-southwest) after morning lows 37-45.

Disturbance riding along warm front may bring few to some scattered showers/storms Monday.  An isolated severe storm is possible with highs 68-75.

Tuesday is mostly dry with 77-81. 

Showers/storms are likely Wednesday PM with a couple isolated severe storms possible & highs 77-81 with windy conditions from the south-southwest both Tuesday & Wednesday.

Bouts of severe weather risk are with us late April & into May:

Warmth dominates with a tendency for near normal rainfall (though this model is hedging more a bit below now...................let's stick with normal).  Normal rainfall for around April 25 to May 7 (12-day period) is around 2.65".

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Improving weather with a warm-up ahead....
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