Spurts of Dogwood Winter continue in this forecast. Dogwood Winter is usually a cooler time with some frost that coincides with the blossoming of the Flowering Dogwoods. This follows a big warm spell. It usually occurs in late April to very early May. This spring is early, however, so it is occurring in mid-April.
This morning dropped to 30-37 with frost.
Highs today reached 55-66.
Frost will occur over northern & eastern parts of the area tonight.
The southwest will see clouds come in & prevent it from getting too cold.
So, there is a wide range in lows tonight from 32-44.
With partly to mostly cloudy skies tomorrow & north winds 10 mph, highs of 55-64 are likely. An isolated sprinkle to light shower is possible (15%).
Highs Sunday should run 60-66 with north-northwest wind at only 3-8 mph. With partly to mostly cloudy skies, a couple to few isolated showers are possible (25%).
Monday will feature southwest winds to 35 mph, increasing clouds & highs 67-72.
Some showers may go to brief bout of rain/snow to snow Tuesday to Tuesday evening as temperatures fall from 47-56 to 34-36
If there would be any accumulation, it would be very minor, localized & very minor.
We should drop to 29-32 Tuesday night as skies clear.
Wednesday will feature a few spotty to isolated rain & graupal showers with partly to mostly cloudy skies & highs 47-54.
Thursday looks much warmer after 29-32 in the morning.
Friday looks much warmer with highs 64-70. A few isolated showers are possible Friday.
Some showers are possible Friday night-Saturday morning of next weekend, followed by clearing & highs of 55-60.
Lows of 32-36 are likely next Saturday night with patchy frost.
After next weekend, you should be able to plant annuals, tomatoes, peppers, etc. You might have one more time you need to cover them in the far north, otherwise, we will be in good shape!
Major change should come after Sunday morning with much warmer weather. 70s & 80s should overspread the area. Widespread 80s are possible by Wednesday, April 28. Winds will be strong from the southwest at 25-40 mph.
Upper trough in the West with chill & upper ridge in the Southeast with summer heat will dominate late April to early May.
This is a good pattern for severe weather outbreaks in the Plains to Midwest, Great Lakes & upper South.
Plant what you can now farmers. Wet period is ahead.
Severe weather probabilities April 27-30 via CIPS analog analysis shows A LOT of severe weather from the Plains to Midwest, southern Great Lakes, southward to the upper South.
Note the considerable tornado risk:
CIPS analog shows higher probability of "Significant Wind" during this time (+75 mph gusts) from Oklahoma to the Midwest.
This active severe weather pattern may continue until around May 5 (severe weather around this time looks particularly intense in the Midwest) when cooler, drier weather will arrive. May 6-11 looks overall cooler & drier than normal.
However, storminess with severe weather risk will likely return in mid-May.
After brief cool-down, early onset of summer heat is expected in late May with 90 to the 90s possible with drier weather.
Note the massive hot, upper ridge developing & moving eastward to our area in late May:
There is the drier than normal regime in late May: