April 15, 2 PM Weather Forecast Update

Lots of warm spring weather ahead!

Posted: Apr 15, 2019 12:18 PM
Updated: Apr 15, 2019 1:22 PM

What a weekend.  Severe weather occurred as far north as southeastern Indiana.

The wintry side was equally impressive, even historic!  This was an unusually heavy late snowfall for Illinois to Michigan.  Parts of the Chicago area received +8" with +12" in parts of Michigan.

Here a trace to 0.3" of snow was reported over the area.  Some spots had grass whitened briefly.  Just as we started to slush up on some elevated surfaces here at West Lafayette, the snow tapered & melted.

Winds were strong here too, with some gusts late Saturday night-Sunday of 45-50 mph.

0.60-1.40" rain fell, which is resulting in rises in creeks & rivers.  Flood Warnings & Advisories are up for Wabash, Iroquois & Kankakee Rivers. 

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Warm front will move north & skies will turn mostly cloudy tonight with lows in the 40s.  A couple isolated showers & t'storms are possible in the north tonight-tomorrow morning with that warm front.

Tuesday looks windy & warm with highs 68-76. & partly to mostly cloudy skies.  An isolated shower or t'storm is possible in the far north tomorrow near warm front.  Southeast to south winds will run 20-30 mph.

Lows in the 50s to around 60 are likely Tuesday night, followed by windy weather & partly to mostly cloudy skies Wednesday.  Only a few isolated showers & t'storms are possible with highs 72-76.

Three areas of severe t'storms will develop late Wednesday afternoon to evening:  one over eastern Nebraska & Iowa & the second over Texas & Oklahoma & the other in Arkansas.

They should all tend to merge into one main, long, wide band of rain & t'storms (with likely an embedded line or a line of storms on the edge of the large area of rain).

We will get these leftovers Wednesday morning to midday.  Some isolated to scattered severe weather cannot be ruled out here, however, given dynamics, shear with some surface buoyancy. 

Temperatures will warm to the 65-68 range with dew points 61-64 in the morning with strong low-level jet nosing in.

The current thinking is that THE BEST severe risk will be west & southwest of us Wednesday PM to night, however.

Thursday is a bit complicated though.

It still looks like two main rounds of rain & t'storms.

However, all of the rain & t'storms Thursday morning to midday has the potential to taint any renewed severe risk in the afternoon-evening.

After any isolated to scattered (MARGINAL TO SLIGHT) risk morning-midday, it is a question of whether we can get enough clearing in the afternoon & recover to allow for another round of severe risk. 

Right now, I question this.  It may stay too cloudy & more stable before the next round of rainfall occurs.

So, at this point, MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK in the morning-midday, then afternoon-evening UNCERTAINTY of any severe risk.

This will also dictate the daytime high temperature.  I am going for 67-72.

Friday to part of Saturday looks showery & cool with north winds & highs in the 40s & 50s.

Easter Sunday currently looks GREAT!  With lots of sunshine, highs look to run 63-71 with the warmest temperatures in the western part of the viewing area & the coolest in the far east.  Lows may drop into the 30s for the early morning, however.  Winds look southwest at 5-12 mph. 

The cool, wet upper will depart, followed by a nice Sunday!

Next Monday looks great with highs 77-81 with sunshine & southwest winds 20-30 mph.  Monday morning lows of 48-55 are likely.

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