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April 14, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is your latest weather low-down on frost, clippers & more frost, then a big warm-up with stormy weather....

Posted: Apr 14, 2021 4:08 PM
Updated: Apr 14, 2021 9:43 PM

Lows this morning ran 32-44 with some frost in the northwestern half of the viewing area.  Clouds in the southern & southeastern areas kept it warmer.

Highs today reached 52-62 with wind gusts +30 mph in the area yet again.

Lows tonight will run 32-37 with patchy frost, especially in low-lying & sheltered areas.

Skies will be mostly clear to partly cloudy.  An isolated sprinkle is possible with the low clouds in our northeastern areas later this evening.

With partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies tomorrow (more clouds northeast & east with an isolated sprinkle there) & west-northwest winds 15-31 mph, highs of 53-60 are likely.

Lows of 33-38 are expected tomorrow night with some patchy frost, especially in the southern & eastern part of the viewing area where winds will be lighter.

With mostly sunny to sunny skies, followed by some increasing clouds Friday, highs of 58-66 are expected with north-northwest winds 10-24 mph.

In northern Newton, Jasper & Pulaski counties, temperatures of 58-60 may fall to 47-54 in the late afternoon as lake breeze front comes in.

An Alberta Clipper system will pass Saturday-Sunday.

With partly to mostly cloudy skies & east to northeast wind, a few spotty showers are possible Saturday.  They look very hit or mix however with 20-30% coverage.  The same will apply to Sunday.

Highs of 58-65 are likely.  Lows of 40-46 are expected.

Monday looks mostly sunny & warmer, followed by some increasing clouds.  Highs of 64-70 & west to west-southwest winds 20-33 mph will occur.

Another Alberta Clipper system will pass Tuesday with a few spotty showers with partly to mostly cloudy skies & west to northwest winds 20-33 mph.

Highs of 52-63 northwest to southeast are likely.

Another Alberta Clipper should pass later Wednesday a few isolated showers with partly to mostly cloudy skies with highs 53-63 northwest to southeast after 35-40 in the morning with mostly clear skies & some patchy frost in sheltered & open, low-lying areas.

Winds Wednesday should be west to northwest at 20-33 mph.

Clearing skies should flow Wednesday night with lows 33-38 with patchy frost, especially over the northwestern & western parts of the viewing area.

Some showers & a few t'showers are possible Saturday, April 24 with a clipper-type system.  Highs of 60-65 are expected.

Sunday, April 25 looks mostly cloudy, breezy & cool with highs 54-59, followed by lows 37-42 at night with partly cloudy skies.

Above normal rainfall will develop April 27-May 5 over the Midwest & Ohio & Tennessee Valleys with increased storminess & severe weather risk.

We see this pattern emerging in the CIPS analog data.

This is for April 25-28:

Analog shows the prob of at least 10 severe weather reports within 68 miles of a gridpoint.  This shows a large outbreak from the Plains & upper South to Illinois, Indiana & northern Ohio.

Note the analog signature in that time of at least 1 significant wind (+75 mph) report within 68 miles of a grid point from our area & southward to the upper South.

Tornado probability in the top analogs shows risk of at least 1 tornadoes within 68 miles of a grid point from Indiana & Ohio to Texas:

Of note is the analog tendency to show increased risk of at least 1 strong to violent tornado within 68 miles of a grid point from eastern Missouri to southern Illinois & Indiana, as well as western Kentucky.

There is less response here with significant hail ("significant hail" would be 2" or more in diameter).  That is more southwest of our region.

You also see the response with +1" of rainfall over the area:

It will also turn warmer than normal again.

After a stint of drier & cooler than normal conditions May 6-10, then warmer May 11-12, it appears it will turn wetter than normal May 13-25 with increased storminess & severe weather risk.

May 11-25 temperatures look above normal.

We may end May with an early surge of summer heat with around 90 to the 90s with drier weather returning.

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West Lafayette
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Hi: 68° Lo: 36°
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Kokomo
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Rensselaer
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Fowler
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Williamsport
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Crawfordsville
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Frankfort
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Delphi
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Monticello
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Logansport
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Feels Like: 37°
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