A big severe weather outbreak is on-going in the South. Yesterday & lastnight saw lots of wind, large hail & tornadoes. 2 fatalies & 24 injuries have been reported with search & rescue underway in some areas of significant tornado damage.
Winds have gusted as high as 50 mph this morning from the northeast. More rain & gusts still to 45 mph will occur afternoon-evening.
Some snow will even develop.
Heavy, wet snow continues to fall west & northwest of the area. Up to 3" has been reported in central Illinois so far, & 1" per hours rates are occurring there, through the Chicago area to Michigan.
Winter Weather Advisories are lining up.
We will remain on the cold side.
Temperatures will be in the 30s all afternoon with rain & wind & wind chills in the 20s.
Rain will mix with snow & may change to all snow for a while later today-tonight. Thunder/lightning is possible.....even isolated small hail or graupal.
We won't be that far from the 70s & 80s today, though!
Explosive severe weather will develop this afternoon in that warm, humid zone.
There is our transition from rain & rain/snow to snow before ending.
As temperatures fall to around 32-35 this evening, some grassy & elevated accumulation is possible! The grass, cartops, roofs & trees may be whitened in some areas!
Where skies clear tonight, lows of 26-30 are likely, where clouds hang on, more like 31-34 will occur.
There will still be a breeze even early in the morning at 5-12 mph, so wind chills will run in the teens to 20s.
However, it will cloud up with warm front Monday afternoon & temperatures will surge to 47-56 (54 Greater Lafayette). A couple sprinkles &/or isolated showers are possible with the warm front, mainly in the north, on Monday.
We will only drop to 41-48 Monday night.
67-76 is likely Tuesday with partly cloudy skies & southerly winds to 40 mph, followed by a few showers & 68-75 Wednesday with mostly cloudy skies. Lows will only be in the 50s & 60s.
The leftovers of a big Plains outbreak of severe will pass Wednesday overnight-Thursday morning. Isolated severe or MARGINAL RISK is possible, but the SLIGHT & ENHANCED should stay west of the area.
After a break, higher risk could develop in the afternoon-evening as the main system comes through after temperatures warm into the 70s.
Overall, it is a SLIGHT RISK of severe given the warm, humid, dynamic & sheared environment.
However, the exact timing of triggers & things such as how much cloud cover is left & how long the morning rain hangs on will mitigate the exact position & magnitude of the main severe risk in our region Thursday p.m.
Friday looks showery & chilly with 50s falling to the 40s with some patchy frost by next weekend.
Saturday looks partly cloudy & in the 50s, while Easter Sunday currently looks mostly sunny with 62-67 after 32-35 in the morning.
70s should follow quickly thereafter, even some 80s.
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