The last widespread severe outbreak saw one tornado in Indiana with EF1 at Mooresville & a longer-track tornado in northeastern Arkansas. In Indiana, winds of 80 mph occurred near the tornado in Morgan County & in parts of Putnam & Greene counties with +90 mph winds in Johnson & Lawrence counties. Winds of 80-85 mph appear to have occurred at & near Loogootee, Indiana (Martin County).
The one Easter Sunday was even an more significant outbreak with 79 tornado reports from northeast Texas to North Carolina, per unfiltered SPC reports.
Worst of it was near Shreveport, Louisiana to north of Jackson, Mississippi to Birmingham, Alabama to far north Georgia & South Carolina with massive HP supercell that rode outflow boundary/warm front for more than 700 miles & produced strong long-track tornado after strong long-track tornado. Tornado debri was carried up to 20,000' & some of it drifted & thrown 40 miles. Evidence of multiple EF3-EF4 tornadoes in the track is clear.
Two other major tornadoes occurred in southeastern Mississippi.
Death toll is now at least 30 with dozens injured.
Louisiana, Mississippi & Alabama have declared States of Emergency.
1.5 million households were without power at last check, but that may have improved now.
Interestingly, as winds were downsloping off of the Edwards Plateau (& sinking due to so much rising air motion east of there) on Sunday as the system deepened over Oklahoma & Arkansas, temperatures skyrocketed to record hot levels in southern Texas. Relative humidity dropped to 4% with Red Flag Warning (recent rainfall helped prevent large brushfires, though).
Winds gusted to 45 mph in this intense heat, making it feel like a blast furnace.
It is much cooler today. Corpus Christi was 97 yesterday. It is 63 as of 11:30 p.m. (local time). Alice had 96 yesterday, it is 64 now.
On the otherside, some areas saw +12" of snow from Colorado to northwestern Iowa & Wisconsin.
103 Brownsville Airport
102 McAllen Airport; Harlingen Airport
100 Linn; Falcon Lake; Los Fresnos; Laguna
99 Zapata Airport
97 Corpus Christi Airport
96 Alice Airport
It is a cold, gray one today with temperatures only 35-41 as of 12:45 p.m.
However, clearing line is on the move eastward, so we should see sun with time this afternoon-evening for the entire viewing area.
This powerhouse spring storm has brought gusts up to 58 mph in the viewing area as of 1 p.m.:
Some trees & limbs are reportedly down around Dayton & West Point.
This is a pick of tree that fell & took out half of this garage.
58 mph 2 SE Dayton
55 mph 3 SE Romney
53 mph West Point
52 mph Waynetown
51 mph 3 E Fowler
49 mph 2 W Rochester
48 mph Round Grove
47 mph Crawfordsville Municipal Airport
46 mph Kentland Municipal Airport; Athens
45 mph 3 SE Covington; 3 E Attica; 2 N Crawfordsville; WLFI Ob Site; 2 SW Rossville
44 mph I-65/IN 28 (Frankfort)
43 mph Purdue University Airport; Frankfort Municipal Airport; Kokomo Municipal Airport
42 mph 3 SE Linden
41 mph Michigantown; Rochester-Fulton County Airport
40 mph Beard; 5 NE Monon; Flora Municipal Airport
39 mph Grissom ARB
38 mph Winamac; I-65/US 24 (Remington) Morocco
37 mph Monticello-White County Airport; Peru Municipal Airport; 2 N Rensselaer
35 mph Rensselaer-Jasper County Airport; Logansport-Cass County Airport
We should turn mostly clear to clear with lows of 27-30 tonight as winds diminish.
However, skies will cloud up after midnight & a few snow flurries are possible early Tuesday morning with temperatures rising to 32-34.
Tuesday looks mostly cloudy with west winds at 15-25 mph & highs 42-46. A few isolated to spotty rain/snow/graupal showers are possible in the afternoon-evening.
After some clearing (temperatures drop to 28-31), we should cloud up again Tuesday night with a period of snow showers possible early Wednesday morning (temperatures 31-33).
Some very localized, brief, grassy & elevated surface accumulation is possible.
Some scattered rain/snow/graupal & snow showers are possible through Wednesday afternoon with mostly cloudy skies & highs 41-47. Winds look west to west-northwest at 10-20 mph.
Skies should clear Wednesday night-early Thursday morning with diminishing breezes & lows 26-30.
We should cloud up with time Thursday with west-northwest winds 10-15 mph. Highs of 44-47 are likely.
At this point, the most vigorous disturbance/clipper is Thursday late night-early Friday morning.
Potential is there for more widespread minor snowfall accumulations. 1" or less is possible on grassy & elevated surfaces.
1-3" is possible northern Missouri through central Illinois. We will monitor closely.
A few spotty rain/snow showers are then possible Friday afternoon with mostly cloudy skies, northwest winds 15-25 mph & highs 40-45.
Friday night looks clear & cold with heavy frost & lows 24-28. If the south wind kicks in sooner, it will not get as cold.
Models vary in output regarding snow early Friday morning. Again, I am going with 1" or less on grassy & elevated surfaces with narrow 1-3" band west & southwest of our area right now.
European model for Thursday night-Friday morning:
U.S. NAM model:
Canadian GDPS model:
United Kingdom UKMET model:
U.S. GFS model:
German ICON model:
U.S. CFS V2:
Big changes occur next weekend with 50s to 60s Saturday & 60s Sunday-Monday.
Some showers are possible late Sunday.
Severe weather risk Sunday-Monday should be confined to the Deep South from Texas to South Carolina with SLIGHT RISK parameters showing up.
Our next potential of any severe risk seems to be around April 23 as substantial outbreak from Kansas, Missouri & Arkansas to Texas occurred with SLIGHT to ENHANCED parameters. We may get some of the leftovers with MARGINAL to SLIGHT RISK in parts of the viewing area.
Bigger outbreak should occur around April 25 from Iowa to Texas. MODERATE RISK parameters show up in Oklahoma & Texas with center of highest risk around Oklahoma City.
Parameters are SLIGHT RISK in our area around April 26 with highs in the 70s to 80 here.
There is rapid migration of severe weather threat northward after April 28 as heat builds.
North Dakota & northwestern Wisconsin to Texas may see severe weather episodes April 28-May 3 with heart of highest risk from Kansas City to Oklahoma City to west of Dallas.
Our parameters show up as MARGINAL RISK around April 28-28 & SLIGHT RISK around May 3 with 80s.
After a cool spell with more stable, polar air quashing severe risk in the Plains & Midwest (we may see some lows in the 30s), risk returns by May 9-10 with heart of highest risk (up to MODERATE) Wichita, Kansas to San Antonio with some SLIGHT sneaking in here by May 12.
By May 16, severe weather risk shows up from eastern Colorado through Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota to possibly eastern Montana with ENHANCED parameters seen in analog data. Dryline looks active, as well, from western Oklahoma to western Texas.