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April 13, 3 PM Severe Weather Discussion For Now-Late May

Here are the patterns governing our severe weather risk now to late May. This gives you an idea of what to expect.

Posted: Apr 13, 2019 1:33 PM
Updated: Apr 13, 2019 5:10 PM


It is a big severe weather day & night for the South.  Already, one damaging tornado has injured 3 people in eastern Texas.

Note the risk today-tonight & then tomorrow.

We will stay on the cold side of the storm system, resulting in any severe risk staying south & southeast of here.

It still looks like Thursday would be our time for severe weather risk again.

The Storm Prediction Center is already highlighting a broad area for severe weather for this system.

First, severe weather should break out Wednesday Iowa to Texas. 

We will get in on the leftovers of that severe weather Wednesday night-early Thursday morning.  It wouldn't surprise me if we see some at least isolated or MARGINAL RISK for severe from it.

With heating, humidity & warrmth & the core of the storm system pivoting through Thursday afternoon-evening, our severe weather risk should ramp up.

It looks like a scenario of where it rains & storms in the morning, then clouds break for sun, cumulus build & new storms pop in the afternoon & evening with the renewed, higher severe weather risk.

That is the evolution right now.  Changes are possible.  Shear, dynamnics atop the warmer, humid air & deep moisture supports the risk, but the exact convective details are still in question like main storm mode (or multiple modes), exactly how many rounds (say we have a line, then scattered supercells, then cluster, then a squall line, etc), exact timing of rain/storms, main threats & exact details regarding clouds or any such factor that could alter forecast some. 

The exact magnitude of the severe episode willl become apparent early to mid week.  It is SLIGHT RISK scenario now, but whether it is upgraded here will be based on much more finely-tuned data coming in.

Small shifts in the mesoscale details can make differences in an overall SLIGHT RISK area & those details will become apparent with time.

This sets the stage for a pattern of multiple opportuntities for severe weather here April 25 about May 6.

This is the Supercell Composite parameter via the CFSV2 model.  It gives you an idea of where the pattern supports severe weather development April 25 to May 6.

Note the Bermude-type high situated southeast of us anchoring the warm air & keeping the strong tropical flow from the Gulf of Mexico surging northward right into our area for an extended period of time.

Also note how there tends to be a warm front near our area separating much cooler weather north & northeast of us & how multiple surface low eject from the Rockies & into the Plains, riding toward the Great Lakes.

All supports frequent episodes of severe risk from the Plains to our viewing area for a period of time.

May 6-17 looks less active in our viewing area with axis of main severe risk shifting to the Plains & Mid- to Lower-Mississippi Valley. 

Our viewing area looks to be dominated by cooler northwest flow with temperatures toggling between near & below normal with below normal rainfall.  A few chilly nights of 36-43 are likely.

It is not out of the question that we have a cool-core, vigorous long-wave or short wave trough pivot through in this period with a day of severe risk (mainly large hail), but the pattern that supports more of your traditional tornado, hail, wind, warm with high humid combo days will be in the Plains & Mid- to Lower-Mississippi Valley.

Thoughts are that our pattern will change to warm to hot & humid after May 17, supporting greater traditional spring severe weather risk of all modes & risks.  Warmest & most humid weather of 2019, so far, is likely at that point with 85-90 & dew points 66-72.

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Flash Flood Watch & risk of isolated severe weather in this forecast.
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