April 12, 9 PM Weather Forecast Update

Showers, isolated thunder, very windy & much colder.

Posted: Apr 12, 2020 8:50 PM
Updated: Apr 12, 2020 9:47 PM

Numerous tornadoes appear to have been spawned by massive HP supercell (supercell embedded in comma vortex & large LEWP at times in cycles) riding outflow boundary/warm front from near Shreveport Louisiana, through Monroe, Louisiana to near Jackson, Mississippi to near Birmingham, Alabama & now near Rome, Georgia.

Inflow into the supercell was impressive with gradient winds blowing in from the south with dew points to 75 degrees blowing trees down.  The winds southeast of the storm were gusting to 43 mph at the Tuscaloosa, Alabama Airport.  Very sharp baroclinic zone set up with the boundary with 60s just north of Birmingham to 86 at Demopolis & Montgomery.  In Mississippi, temperatures varied from upper 50s to 60 to 80s north & south of the boundary.

Storm actually dropped the surface pressure so much to form its own meso-low.

Death toll is currently 6 with dozens injured.

Significant damage is reported in this track with multiple businesses destroyed on the north side of Birmingham, Alabama, many homes destroyed westward through Mississippi & planes damaged & destroyed (as well as hangars) at the Monroe, Louisiana Airport.  Multiple churches are reportedly damaged or destroyed in Alabama.  With so many hunkered down & abreast of the weather at home, it is likely that many lives were saved.  Church congregations were at home on this Easter & the multiple businesses destroyed were empty.

Two other apparent long-track tornadoes with heavy damage also occurred in southern Mississippi. 

Risk of all severe weather hazards, including long-track tornadoes will continue into the evening, especially for Alabama.

PDS Tornado Watch continues for central Alabama.

Meanwhile, after up to 16" snow in Maine late last week (& accumulating snowfall across New England), up to 11" of snowfall has been reported today out of northwestern Iowa to southern Minnesota & Wisconsin.  Highest totals of up to 17" are in southwestern South Dakota.  Totals of 8.5" have been reported so far out of the Minneapolis area.

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Highs today reached 59-66 over the viewing area.

Showers are likely tonight with lows in the 50s.  An isolated rumble or two of thunder is possible.  It will turn very windy & much colder by morning.

An severe weather risk tonight still looks to stay southeast & east of our area.

Few brief rain/snow showers are possible early, followed by lots of clouds.

Some clearing is likely in the afternoon.

After 35-40 in the morning, highs of 41-46 are likely.  Wind chills in the 20s to 30 in the morning will run in the 30s in the afternoon.

Northwest to west wind gusts of 45-60 mph are likely in the 5 a.m. to 5 p.m. time frame for the viewing area.  Winds will be sustained at 20-35 mph.

Watch the chill blast in Monday morning:

Winds will diminish greatly tomorrow night with increasing high & mid clouds.  Lows of 27-32 are still likely.

With partly to mostly coudy skies Tuesday, a few rain/snow to snow showers are possible Tuesday evening-night.

After highs in the 40s Tuesday (with breezy conditions [gusts to 25 mph from the northwest]), lows Tuesday night should run 29-32.

1-2" of wet snow may fall in southwest Kansas to parts of Oklahoma Tuesday morning!

With partly to mostly cloudy skies, a few scattered rain/snow to snow showers are possible Wednesday-Wednesday night.

Highs will run in the 40s with lows 30-32.

Some brief, very minor, localized accumulation is possible on some grassy & elevated surfaces Wednesday morning & Wednesday night.

Winds look west-northwest at 10-20 mph.

Thursday looks continued chilly with west-northwest winds at 10-20 mph, mostly cloudy skies & highs in the 40s after lows 30-32 in the morning.

Some snow showers are possible in the morning with localized, brief, very minor grassy & elevated surface accumulation possible.

A band of solid 1-3" snow could develop from northern Missouri to central Illinois to possibly south-central Indiana.  We will monitor & see if this can occur & if so, if it shifts northward.

Thursday night looks the coldest of the week so far with clearing skies, winds turning light & lows 24-28.

Friday shows increasing clouds & highs in the 40s with a north wind at 15-25 mph.

After that, we change next weekend very rapidly.  We could be in the 60s to 70 Sunday after 50s to 60 Saturday as warm front shoots northward.  However, showers & t'storms may also occur.  Severe weather risk should stay well south of our area from Texas to Louisiana, Mississippi & Alabama.  It does not look overly-intense at the moment with SLIGHT RISK parameters showing up down there.

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Warming up with plenty of sunshine!
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