SEVERE WX : Flash Flood Watch View Alerts

April 11, 10:45 PM Weather Forecast Update

Marginal Risk on a balmy night.

Posted: Apr 11, 2019 9:55 PM
Updated: Apr 11, 2019 10:49 PM

MARGINAL RISK of severe weather is up for area.

A couple isolated severe gusts are possible.  Some isolated small hail is possible. 

A loosely-organized line of storms with bulges, LEWPs (S-shapes) & nodes in it (due to all of the shear & dynamics) will pass 12 a.m.-4 a.m.

The air is dry (dew points 40s & 50s) & coming from the central Plains, so there is a lack of good latent heat for storm energy that you would need for more robust severe threat.

Also, we have had a high/mid level overcast with only dim sun all day (temperatures still warmed nicely though) & we are loosing what heating we did have.

Finally, the cold pocket with the storm is displaced well northwest of our area.

The only thing perpetuating the MARGINAL RISK is the shear & dynamics of the howling winds through the troposphere from this bomb Plains spring storm (& its lift) & some little bits of buoyancy or heating.

There is the rain & note a few nodes, bulges of a line in Illinois moving northeastward toward our area.

   

HRRR model radar projection for the overnight to Friday morning:

Projected HRRR model rainfall totals:

Friday looks good, but windy!

Saturday is shaping up alright!

Sunday still looks nasty with a driving moderate to heavy rainfall in the morning with strong east winds, followed by more showery/periodic rain conditions in the afternoon with a bit of decrease in the wind for a bit.

Wind should turn more to the north & increase again in the late afternoon-evening with rain (not as heavy as the morning though).

Highs should only run from 41 in the northwest to 53 in the southeast & around 48 in Greater Lafayette.

Rain may mix with snow in the northwest before ending Sunday night as temperatures drop into the 30s.

Rainfall totals of 0.80-1.40" are likely.

Monday looks dry & cool with partly cloudy skies & highs 48-55.

Warm front Tuesday will bring 68-75 back in.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
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Rensselaer
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Fowler
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Williamsport
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Frankfort
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Delphi
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Monticello
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Logansport
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Scattered Storms Wednesday
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