April 11, 1 PM Update

Active weather ahead!

Posted: Apr 11, 2019 11:38 AM
Updated: Apr 11, 2019 1:24 PM

Here comes the warm front that is about to bring the warmest day of 2019 so far!

Strong winds from the south to south-southwest will also follow the warm front.  After howling east winds last night, howling southerly winds gusting 35-45 mph will occur this afternoon & evening.

Wind Advisory is up for a good chunk of the viewing area.

Major spring storm continues in the Plains & Upper Midwest with historic blizzard.  Widespread high winds are also occurring with the storm.

Note the wildfire weather warning (Red Flag Warning) in Missouri.  This is important to us because this is dry air that is undercutting this system's warm sector.

Despite good dynamics & shear, the lack of deep moisture & thus more unstable air, will keep our severe threat MARGINAL (to SLIGHT in the western fringe).

Isolated severe gusts are the main threat & perhaps some small hail.  Timing is 10 p.m. to 2 a.m.

Best potential of severe is Illinois when the t'storms develop at peak heating.

Also, front will become increasingly anafrontal overnight (wind at 10,000' & surface become parallel to each other) causing the line to weaken as it exits our area & a considerable amount of rainfall & some isolated thunder to occur behind the front.

The trend is to have the band of heaviest rainfall set up from part of Newton & far western Benton counties, through eastern Illinois with lesser amounts elsewhere.

Any rainfall in our area should end Friday morning.

Dry slot should bring a lot of sunshine tomorrow with 50s to lower 60s & southwest winds gusting to 35 mph after morning lows in the 40s to around 50.

For the Challenge 5K at Purdue Saturday, dress warmly.  It will be around 35 at 7-8 a.m. & the west wind, after being light initially, will crank up to 10-15 mph by 8 p.m., leading to wind chills in the upper 20s.

By 11 a.m. west winds at 10-20 mph will continue to add a chill.  Temperatures will be up to around 49, however.

The afternoon should improve as the wind decreases to 5-10 mph & temperatures rise to around 57.

Mid & high clouds will be on the increase after a good deal of sun initially.

Widespread rainfall is likely Sunday morning before it become more periodic & showery midday onward.  Winds will be howling from the east to northeast in the morning to 40 mph with the rain.  Combine this with temperatures in the 30s & 40s & it make for a nasty start to Sunday.

Winds will subside some midday-afternoon, then crank back up in the evening & be northerly with gusts to 40 mph.

Highs Sunday will only be in the 40s (some 50s southeast) & north & northwest of our area, accumulating snowfall from this system may occur.

Temperatures may fall into the 30s in the evening, leading to the potential of brief wet snow in Newton, Jasper & Pulaski counties.  If there would be any small amount of accumulation it would be very light & on an elevated surface like a car top, wind shield, roof top, tree, etc.

This storm system looks to bring a substantial severe weather outbreak to the southern U.S. from eastern Texas to Georgia. 

It is not out of the question that some severe risk gets as far north as southern Indiana & eastern Indiana south of the warm front & east of the cold front.  This would tend to be an area of some MARGINAL RISK that would occur separate from the southern U.S. outbreak. 

This would be toward the colder air aloft of the upper low with disturbance pivoting around the system's center acting as a trigger.  Note how much warmer it will be in that zone (second image below).

Lows Monday night should drop 32-37 with wind gradually subsiding & slow clearing taking place northwest to southeast over the viewing area.

After 50s Monday, warm front will skyrocket northward Monday night to Tuesday, putting the kabosh on any risk of frost & freezing for Monday night.

Cloud band with a few showers will accompany this warm front.  This will push highs Tuesday to 68-75 for the area with a strong southwest wind developing.

In our northern counties, it may take until late afternoon to finally get into the good warmth.

Wednesday looks warm.  Thursday looks warm.  Highs look to run in the 70s with lows in the 50s & 60s.

Severe weather risk will return next Thursday, with some potential risk as early as Wednesday night-Thursday morning, then a better risk in the afternoon & evening.  We will monitor.

The worst of the severe weather this that system looks to set up Texas & Oklahoma to Arkansas, southern Missouri, to Louisiana & Mississippi.  It could be a large significant outbreak.

It appears that we would get those leftovers late Wednesday night-Thursday morning with some risk, then new t'storms form here with the surface low & cold front Thursday PM.

That said, the m-o of this forecast late April to early May is warm with temperatures averaging above normal.

I have no doubt that there will likely be a brief, random cool snap with some patchy frost.  That is climatologically favorable, but we will also have temperatures as high as the 80s & any chill should be brief.

Good news for farmers.  Precipitation is trending below normal for late April-early May overall.

There will be some storms & severe risk at times, but there is not sign of a consistent, wetter pattern.

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