April 5, 12 PM Weather Forecast Update

Here is the latest on the weather pattern now to the end of April.

Posted: Apr 5, 2020 11:04 AM
Updated: Apr 5, 2020 12:57 PM

Rainfall totals Saturday ranged from trace-0.13" with 50s very early falling into the 40s, making for a cold, blustery, gray day.

Lows this morning ran 30-39, coldest in the northwest where the greatest amounts clearing occurred overnight.  There, frost & some fog accurred.

Note all of the near/record cold temperatures in the western U.S. to the Plains over the past few days.

Also, note the records warmth in the southeast & eastern U.S. earlier last week.

Our taste of the West & Plains cold yesterday & lastnight was just a tiny amount compared to what was experienced west of here.

Northwest half of the viewing area has lots of sunshine right now, but the southeast half is still gray as of 11:25 a.m.

However, the entire area will eventually turn mostly sunny to then sunny with time today.

Current temperatures of 40-47 should rise to 56-62.

With northeast to east wind north of the northward-advancing warm front, cold, damp airmass will come into the northern half of the area courtesy of Lake Michigan, Lake Erie & Lake Huron, resulting in some patches of very low clouds & some fog.

That area will also have cold lows in the 30s (31-36).

However, in the southern half, lows in the 40s to 50 are likely as high & mid levels increase with warm front approach.

Warm front will be on the move northward tomorrow with wind turn from southeast to south & south-southwest.

Skies looks partly to mostly cloudy with a few/couple isolated showers (25%).

Highs of 60-70 are likely for the area from north & northeast to southwest with warm front draping over the area.  That will result in pretty big temperature difference.

Better rainfall coverage will be Monday night with 45-50% coverage of showers & t'storms in the viewing area.  An isolated small hailer is possible.

Temperatures will be warm with readings steady then then rising from 55-63 to 62-68.

Tuesday looks partly cloudy to occasionally mostly cloudy, windy & warm with southwest winds to 35 mph & highs 73-77.  A couple isolated showers are possible (20%).

Fast-moving line of t'storms still looks possible Tuesday night.

SPC has SLIGHT RISK of severe weather up for the viewing area for this.

Main threat is severe wind gusts (58 mph or greater).

It is now looking as if we may have a second line of storms Wednesday with passage of secondary, stronger cold front (first one comes through Tuesday night).

Parameters look MARGINAL to SLIGHT here.

Main threat here would be wind.

How unstable we get will be key with magnitude with this round.

Timing is in question, as well (Wednesday midday, afternoon or evening?)

Highs in the 60s & 70s are likely with strong southwest winds to 35 mph.

Much colder air comes in Wednesday night with howling northwest to north winds to 45 mph & lows in the 30s.

A period with a few isolated +50 mph gusts are possible.

With lots of clouds & northwest winds to 40 mph, highs should only reach the 40s (at best) Thursday.  A couple flurries & sprinkles are possible (mainly in the northeast).

With lots of clouds, a few flurries & sprinkles are possible Friday with highs only in the 30s & 40s after 30 to the 30s in the morning.  Winds will be brisk from the northwest with gusts up to 33 mph.

We should clear the skies & diminish the winds Friday night, causing lows to drop into the 20s (23-28).

These will likely be the last widespread 20s in the viewing area until Fall.

So, it looks unseasonably cool until just past the midpoint of April when a big change occurs.

Temperature anomalies overall April 8-15:

Strong warm front will surge northward, bathing us in warmth, while big storm deepens in the Plains.

Looks like snowstorm in the Rockies & parts of the Plains & severe weather outbreak potentiall from Nebrask & Kansas to Iowa to Texas.

We will likely get in on some of this severe weather risk on or after April 16-17.

Cold pattern erodes for warmer than normal weather East & colder than normal weather West (with some late-season snowstorms in the Rockies & High Plains) late April to early May:

We also go from below normal rainfall to above with time with increasing storminess.

May overall shows warmer than normal temperatures East & colder than normal temperatures parts of Plains & West.

This tends to put the battle ground with storms & heavier rainfall in the Midwest (including our area), Great Lakes & Lower Mississippi Valley.

It also promotes some unseasonble, late-season snowstorms in the Rockies (including Denver).

Precipitation is above normal for May over a large area.

I have other data suggestive of above normal rainfall here in May, though this CFS run shows an odd normal to slightly-below normal pocket in our area.

Above normal makes sense here given the pattern with an active storm track with frequent severe weather risk.

June mean temperature looks warmer than normal overall here & colder than normal in the Rockies & High Plains.

June continues to show tendency for above normal rainfall here:

July looks warmer than normal here.  Rockies to California should end up cooler than normal.

July continues to show a tendency to be drier tha norma here.

Wild card for not only July, but also August to September, is tropical development in the Gulf & Atlantic.

One single big tropical remnant could flip us from dry to normal or wetter than normal.  Or, remnant tropical moisture from landfalling system could flip us wetter rather than dry.

I remember working in Evansville at ABC 25 in 2005 & that summer was extremely hot & dry.  However, in that immediate Tri-State area along & east of Illinois Route 1, the corn & soybean crop was bumper due to three remnants of tropical storms & hurricanes.  It was a very, very sharp cut-off between a great crop & a major drought with 100s.

In our immediate area around Evansville at the time, a side effect was the intense heat from the nearby drought moving over the wet soils.  This brought a record-breaking heat index in late July to 129.  Highs reached 95-98 over wet soils with 100-105 over dry soils.

Dew points over the wet soils reached 83, while they were 71 over dry soils. 

Some temperatures were 98 with dew points of 82, leading to deadly heat indices.

I remember running weather crawls for Excessive Heat Warnings with updates because it was so dangerous!

August continues to trend drier than normal.

However, wild card will be tropical depressions, storms & hurricanes.  Remnants get up here & that could change.

This long range models tends to show tropical tracks in the Gulf & Atlantic with above to well-above normal rainfall southwest, south & southeast of our area.

August is also trending warmer than normal.

August trends drier than normal.  Again, tropical remnants are the wild card.

Also, though the season looks active, there is a question as to how many would affect us with heavy rainfall.

West Lafayette
Cloudy
66° wxIcon
Hi: 77° Lo: 45°
Feels Like: 66°
Kokomo
Partly Cloudy
63° wxIcon
Hi: 76° Lo: 46°
Feels Like: 63°
Rensselaer
Cloudy
63° wxIcon
Hi: 78° Lo: 44°
Feels Like: 63°
Fowler
Cloudy
66° wxIcon
Hi: 77° Lo: 46°
Feels Like: 66°
Williamsport
Cloudy
66° wxIcon
Hi: 77° Lo: 45°
Feels Like: 66°
Crawfordsville
Partly Cloudy
63° wxIcon
Hi: 76° Lo: 43°
Feels Like: 63°
Frankfort
Mostly Cloudy
63° wxIcon
Hi: 76° Lo: 44°
Feels Like: 63°
Delphi
Mostly Cloudy
65° wxIcon
Hi: 78° Lo: 45°
Feels Like: 65°
Monticello
Cloudy
65° wxIcon
Hi: 80° Lo: 47°
Feels Like: 65°
Logansport
Cloudy
63° wxIcon
Hi: 76° Lo: 44°
Feels Like: 63°
After bout of some rain, a long, long warm, dry stretch!
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