Singling out the winter in this post. We will dig into fall & spring & what next summer may hold in future posts this week.
Weak El Nino Modoki disguised as a La Nina at times heavy influence from other players on the field like MJO, PDO, PNA, NAO & AO will dominate the winter. I think that sometimes it will look like full-fledged Modoki, then full-fledged La Nina.
Many of the players will assert similar influence from last winter. It will continue to be a low solar episode as sunspots will be lacking.
Thinking southeast ridge will keep temperatures warmer than normal there, but frequent Arctic intrusions into the Plains & Midwest will keep it colder than normal.
As for us, we will favor more cold than warm with a couple significant Arctic intrusions (like the past 2 winters) possible with lows to -23 to -19 & wind chills to -45 to -38.
Thinking December will be mild, but January to mid February overall rough with mild weather late February.
We will be right on the edge of the warmth & bitter cold frequently, resulting in active storm track, more winter cold & snow than normal (& potential of an even tighter temperature gradient than what the map shows).
There will also be a higher than normal number of significant temperatures swings, just like the past two winters.
Overall, many of the same patterns for the past former two winters will be repeating.
Although precipitation may run above normal here, the main corridor of heaviest precipitation for the winter is shaping up south & southeast of our area, per analog analysis.
December-February 2019-20 mean temperature anomalies:
High temperature anomalies:
Low temperature anomalies:
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