Another Look Into the 2019-20 Winter

Here are some maps that combine analogs to produce the best idea of how the winter will unfold.

Posted: Jul 22, 2019 10:44 PM
Updated: Jul 22, 2019 11:14 PM

Singling out the winter in this post.  We will dig into fall & spring & what next summer may hold in future posts this week.

Weak El Nino Modoki disguised as a La Nina at times heavy influence from other players on the field like MJO, PDO, PNA, NAO & AO will dominate the winter.  I think that sometimes it will look like full-fledged Modoki, then full-fledged La Nina. 

Many of the players will assert similar influence from last winter.  It will continue to be a low solar episode as sunspots will be lacking.

Thinking southeast ridge will keep temperatures warmer than normal there, but frequent Arctic intrusions into the Plains & Midwest will keep it colder than normal.

As for us, we will favor more cold than warm with a couple significant Arctic intrusions (like the past 2 winters) possible with lows to -23 to -19 & wind chills to -45 to -38.

Thinking December will be mild, but January to mid February overall rough with mild weather late February.

We will be right on the edge of the warmth & bitter cold frequently, resulting in active storm track, more winter cold & snow than normal (& potential of an even tighter temperature gradient than what the map shows).

There will also be a higher than normal number of significant temperatures swings, just like the past two winters.

Overall, many of the same patterns for the past former two winters will be repeating.

Although precipitation may run above normal here, the main corridor of heaviest precipitation for the winter is shaping up south & southeast of our area, per analog analysis.

December-February 2019-20 mean temperature anomalies:

High temperature anomalies:

Low temperature anomalies:

Precipitation anomalies:

Lafayette
Cloudy
40° wxIcon
Hi: 47° Lo: 24°
Feels Like: 40°
Kokomo
Cloudy
38° wxIcon
Hi: 40° Lo: 20°
Feels Like: 29°
Rensselaer
Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 39° Lo: 21°
Feels Like: 34°
Lafayette
Cloudy
40° wxIcon
Hi: 42° Lo: 25°
Feels Like: 40°
Danville
Cloudy
39° wxIcon
Hi: 46° Lo: 25°
Feels Like: 33°
Frankfort
Cloudy
39° wxIcon
Hi: 46° Lo: 26°
Feels Like: 32°
Frankfort
Cloudy
39° wxIcon
Hi: 43° Lo: 23°
Feels Like: 32°
Monticello
Cloudy
36° wxIcon
Hi: 44° Lo: 22°
Feels Like: 31°
Monticello
Cloudy
36° wxIcon
Hi: 44° Lo: 21°
Feels Like: 31°
Logansport
Cloudy
34° wxIcon
Hi: 41° Lo: 20°
Feels Like: 34°
Warmest weather since December is ahead with good timing with the weekend rainfall...
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Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 659127

Reported Deaths: 12494
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion903271628
Lake48239872
Allen35663632
Hamilton31929395
St. Joseph29721510
Elkhart25306412
Vanderburgh21173377
Tippecanoe19873199
Johnson16290355
Porter15896268
Hendricks15765300
Clark11885179
Madison11704315
Vigo11538229
Monroe10285159
Delaware9815178
LaPorte9732195
Howard9030195
Kosciusko8529108
Bartholomew7412147
Hancock7392128
Warrick7389147
Floyd7172165
Wayne6616189
Grant6411157
Morgan6054124
Boone605388
Dubois5885111
Dearborn542366
Henry540792
Marshall5406104
Cass539699
Noble508176
Jackson463664
Shelby459390
Lawrence4165111
Gibson401081
Harrison397061
Clinton393753
Montgomery384283
DeKalb384078
Knox355784
Miami355663
Whitley347835
Huntington341276
Steuben337155
Wabash329776
Putnam327359
Ripley325661
Adams321549
Jasper314243
White296151
Jefferson293370
Daviess284696
Fayette270856
Decatur269788
Greene260679
Posey260131
Wells256574
Scott249649
LaGrange240570
Clay239744
Randolph225276
Spencer216630
Jennings214144
Washington209327
Sullivan202639
Fountain200942
Starke186950
Owen181853
Fulton177737
Jay177328
Carroll176118
Perry173035
Orange170750
Rush164322
Vermillion159541
Franklin158835
Tipton145841
Parke138415
Pike127432
Blackford120327
Pulaski106444
Newton96431
Brown94839
Benton91613
Crawford90413
Martin80014
Switzerland7527
Warren75212
Union66910
Ohio52911
Unassigned0429

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