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November 16, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update: Latest Outlook Now to Christmas

Here is the latest outlook from now to Christmas

Posted: Nov. 16, 2018 8:44 PM
Updated: Nov. 16, 2018 11:03 PM

There was one really mild day in early November, but since then, temperatures have been below to well-below normal.

As of the 16th, this is the coldest November (viewer area-wide) since 1996 & polar opposite of the unusually warm 2015 & 2016 first 16 days of November.

1995's first 16 days of November were similarly cold, but nothing beats November 1-16, 1991 in the past 67 years.  The viewing area's mean temperature was 13-17 degrees below normal.  Nothing like this had occurred prior since the Arctic outbreak & snowy first half of November 1951.

I have daily mean temperature anomalies from the Purdue Airport observed in October & for the first 16 days of November.

I also made the mean temperature projections for the rest of November with below normal temperature expected until November 21, then a stretch of warmer weather.  Another round of Arctic air should follow at the end of November & as we move into December.

So...................breaking the outlook down for now to Christmas...................

With it being the last home game for the season at Ross-Ade, there will be a lot of tailgaters 7 a.m.-7 p.m. 

So, Saturday:

SKIES:  Mostly cloudy to cloudy

WINDS:  Southeast early at 3-6 mph, going to the west, then northwest, then north.  After running 6-10 mph much of the day, winds should increasing 10-15 mph late afternoon-evening.

TEMPERATURES:  Morning low 29, rising to 39 near late morning-midday............falling to 33 in the p.m.

WIND CHILLS:  24 in the morning..........30-34 late morning-midday.........27-32 mid-afternoon.....20-25 evening.

PRECIPITATION:  Some scattered rain & snow showers initially late morning-midday-early afternoon to wave of light snow afternoon-evening-Saturday night.

SNOW ACCUMULATION:  Less than 1" of accumulation developing Saturday late to Saturday night.

ROAD CONDITIONS:  All wet until after 10 p.m. when a film could accumulation on bridges, overpasses & sidewalks, leading to some slick spots.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:  Snow will fall:  HIGH CONFIDENCE................Timing of rain/snow showers:  MEDIUM............Exact timing of steadier light snowfall with minor accumulation:  MEDIUM

Snow showers may linger into Sunday morning with an additional dusting.  Given temperatures in the upper 20s late Saturday night-Sunday morning, icy spots are possible on roadways.

Once snow showers exit by Sunday afternoon, some gradual clearing possible with highs 33-36 & north to northwest winds 6-12 mph.

Next week looks dry with a good deal of sunshine.  Really, it looks like the best week of consistent sun & milder weather (compared to normal) since late October & one day in early November.  No, it will not be 65 or 70, but 38-45 will give way to 50s at the end of the week.  Thanksgiving look good with sunshine & highs in the 50s with sunshine.

This will occur as deep upper trough arrives in California, bringing heavy rainfall there. Also, heavy rain will come back to the Pacific Northwest, which has been abnormally dry this fall.  When it gets wet & cooler there, we tend to get warmer.

When we are unusually cold, they tend to be unusually warm & dry.  Such has been the case much of this November.

Systems at the end of the month will bring rain, even a few isolated storms with much colder air to follow.

With the much colder air coming in, I would not rule out a couple of Nor'Easters with heavy snowfall Georgia to the Northeast in the first 10 days of December with the potential of a round of accumulating snowfall even here.

Note the highs here at the very end of November to beginning of the month of December in the upper 20s with 50s all the way to Gainesville, Florida & highs struggling to lower 60s at Orlando & Tampa.  The only truly warm place in the country will be south Florida with mid 70s there.

Surface low in Oklahoma & falling pressure in the northern Gulf with strong baroclinic zone along the Gulf Coast (50s to 70s water temperature) signals likelihood of the first of two Nor'Easters in early December.

December 1-25 look dominated by below normal temperatures.  There likely will be a period where the temperature moderates or gets above normal, but that looks brief. 

The pattern will feature a blocking upper ridge over Alaska/Bering Sea & another blocking ridge near Greenland to Scandinavia.  South of that, below normal temperatures & lower pressure will dominate.  The strong baroclinic zone along the Gulf Coast will promote a good set-up for Nor'Easters & southern storm systems in general. 

It would not surprise me if we end up with three snowfall episodes December 1-25.  I am still calling for a white Christmas, which means there will be 1" of snow on the ground or more on Christmas.

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