INTENSELY HOT WITH CAPPING TAKING OVER........

A hot, dry layer aloft is looking stronger & stronger today. This layer may completely prevent even an isolated storm from popping & could very well hamper any efforts to pop a few storms tomorrow, but a few scattered storms would occur over part of the area Sunday.

Posted: Jun 29, 2018 1:49 PM
Updated: Jun 29, 2018 6:04 PM

THE HEAT & VERY HIGH HUMIDITY:

EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING ALONG & NORTH OF U.S. 24 (ALSO INCLUDES BENTON COUNTY)

HEAT ADVISORY REST OF VIEWING AREA

Heat indices as of 2:03 p.m.
103* Danville, Illinois-Vermilion County Airport
102* Frankfort Municipal Airport
101* Attica (4 ESE Attica)
99*  Fowler (2 ENE Fowler)
99* Rochester-Fulton County Airport
99* Peru-Grissom Air Reserve Base
98* Purdue University Airport
96* Monticello-White County Airport
96* Kokomo Municipal Airport
94* Crawfordsville Municipal Airport
93* Logansport-Cass County Airport

It will remain intensely hot over the next three days with highs, overall, at 91-96 with heat indices of around 106 to as high as 112.  Even next week looks hot & humid.  Highs will tend to run 88-93 with heat indices averaging 97-107 with very high humidity.

THE CAP & EVENTUAL INCREASING STORM DEVELOPMENT & COVERAGE.........STORMS AROUND EVERY DAY NEXT WEEK:

The clouds were bubbling up nicely this morning with even an isolated shower, but strong capping has strengthened & is taking over.  This cap is a warm, dry layer in the troposphere that tends to come from the Plains & desert areas well to our west & southwest.  The troposphere is the lower part of the atmosphere where weather occurs.  We are at a lower elevation than the elevated Plains & desert areas, to that heat builds there & then moves northeastward & effectively puts a stout lid on the very humid, hot air that would normally fuel storms popping from any trigger in our area.  This cap looks even deeper & stronger than it did yesterday in today's outlook!

Check out a projected cross section of the troposphere in the image below.

Note that the projected sounding this late afternoon in Tippecanoe County shows a very moist airmass near the surface & a sharp temperature difference between the ground & just below 5,000' ("850" on the chart).  This may allow a few surface-based cumulus clouds to form, but beyond that, check how it warms & then just doesn't cool quickly as you go way up.  Also, see how the red & green lines separate?  That is the temperature & dew point far away from each other signaling dry air. 

What is amazing is how incredibly unstable it will be with this intense heat & humidity near the surface.  Surface instability will be an astounding +6000 J/kg of CAPE (energy).  Given the intensely unstable surface airmass that is only further concentrated by the cap, if not for that lid, intense, pulsey storms with wet microburst potential would be the story.   The outflow boundary & gravity wave perturbation left from the monster bow of severe storms to our west & southwest yesterday evening to last night would be the triggers.  This is why you see "SEVERE" classified for this projected sounding on the left of this image.  It shows that conditions would be good for pulsey, slow-moving severe storms, but we are just too capped.

Even the short-range high-resolution models do not even have a lick of an isolated shower or storm popping this afternoon.  I liked keeping "an isolated random storm" in the forecast last night for today, but unless there is any local weakness in the cap, there will not be a thing.  This will be the case despite us being absolutely loaded for a storm to pop.

We will still monitor for the afternoon-evening.

Even tomorrow, new data & projected soundings have us completely locked in a cap strong enough to prevent even an isolated storm from popping, despite being absolutely loaded with CAPE (energy) that would propel storm updrafts upward very quickly.  This would be a pulsey, wet microburst, slow-moving storm situation.  The NAM model projection has an even stronger cap tomorrow with still extreme CAPE from the intense heat & humidity near the surface.

I went ahead with my gut & kept a 20% coverage of storms for tomorrow to account for any weakness in the cap that would pop a randomly isolated storm.  I noticed a weakness in the cap over southeastern Missouri & southern Illinois, so I felt better keeping that "isolated" wording in.  Otherwise, it looks dry & very hot & humid with only a few to some scattered cumulus clouds.

We should see a few scattered storms make it into the area by Sunday.  There may be a few early, then more later in the day, appears at the moment.  The best potential is setting up over the northwestern half of the viewing area (northwest of Lafayette & West Lafayette).

Periods of scattered showers & storms are likely Monday-Friday of next week.  They may organize or semi-organized into clusters & some lines at times, but the main wind fields for organized, widespread severe weather (at least right now) are setting up northwest, north & northeast of our area.  We will continue to monitor.

Locally-heavy rainfall is possible with some localized totals of +4" possible for the Monday-Friday period.

Also, at this point, looks like 40% coverage of T-storms for the afternoon-evening of July 4th.  This coverage may continue into the early night-time hours.

West Lafayette
Scattered Clouds
89° wxIcon
Hi: 89° Lo: 68°
Feels Like: 93°
Kokomo
Scattered Clouds
86° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 91°
Rensselaer
Broken Clouds
82° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 86°
Fowler
Broken Clouds
82° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 64°
Feels Like: 86°
Williamsport
Clear
85° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 87°
Crawfordsville
Scattered Clouds
84° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 67°
Feels Like: 87°
Frankfort
Scattered Clouds
83° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 88°
Delphi
Scattered Clouds
85° wxIcon
Hi: 88° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 88°
Monticello
Scattered Clouds
85° wxIcon
Hi: 89° Lo: 66°
Feels Like: 88°
Logansport
Clear
87° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 65°
Feels Like: 93°
Hotter & More Humid with Some Storms, Then a Cool-Down
WLFI Radar
WLFI Temps
WLFI Planner

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 78632

Reported Deaths: 3113
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Marion16437734
Lake7952283
Elkhart505191
Allen4161164
St. Joseph376683
Hamilton3033104
Vanderburgh212215
Hendricks1978109
Johnson1819119
Cass18139
Porter141539
Clark135250
Tippecanoe129312
Madison106266
LaPorte96730
Howard94865
Kosciusko87812
Bartholomew86747
Floyd86150
Marshall80523
Monroe78432
Vigo77913
Delaware77752
Dubois72912
Noble71729
Boone71646
Hancock70239
Warrick61230
Jackson6075
Shelby57328
LaGrange57110
Grant53330
Dearborn52828
Morgan50135
Henry46720
Clinton4624
Wayne41010
White38411
Montgomery36721
Harrison36524
Lawrence35927
Decatur35332
Putnam3318
Daviess29620
Scott28110
Miami2792
Jasper2662
Greene25934
Franklin25116
Gibson2464
DeKalb2444
Jennings23312
Ripley2218
Steuben2173
Carroll2135
Fayette2097
Perry18913
Orange18824
Posey1840
Starke1817
Wabash1805
Wells1802
Fulton1752
Jefferson1752
Knox1711
Sullivan1631
Whitley1626
Tipton15516
Washington1531
Clay1505
Spencer1403
Randolph1345
Huntington1303
Adams1242
Newton12110
Owen1131
Rush1004
Jay970
Pulaski841
Brown762
Fountain762
Pike670
Blackford662
Benton640
Ohio636
Vermillion620
Switzerland590
Parke581
Martin530
Crawford500
Union420
Warren251
Unassigned0207

COVID-19 Important links and resources

As the spread of COVID-19, or as it's more commonly known as the coronavirus continues, this page will serve as your one-stop for the resources you need to stay informed and to keep you and your family safe. CLICK HERE

Closings related to the prevention of the COVID-19 can be found on our Closings page.

Community Events