Certainly, the better severe risk is south & southeast of our viewing area where a widespread outbreak is possible this afternoon-tonight.
Here in our viewing area, although there is the risk of some severe storms area-wide, the better risk is the farther east & southeast you go.
The main disturbance is now moving into northwestern counties with a pronounced band of cumulus ahead of it & some shower/storm development underway from Benton to Jasper counties. This band of cumulus & showers/storms will be watched for development & increasing intensity. However, you will notice a patch of rain with the disturbance coming in, too with lots of clouds in eastern Illinois cutting instability.
All this said storms may continue to fire on a band of agitated cumulus now in our northwest. A patch of rain behind them will also rotate through. However, it is possible that as clouds thin behind that patch of rain, a few more storms could re-fire.
So, really now-6 p.m., we may have cells continue to develop & then back build on the front edge of that patch of rain with some severe risk & then, IF the clouds can thin enough, there may be a window for a bit of re-development BEHIND that patch of rainfall for some severe risk as the actual cold front approaches & passes.
Wind is the main threat. Hail & brief tornado are lesser risks. SLIGHT RISK (scattered severe) remains along & east of a Lafayette line & ENHANCED (numerous severe) in the far east. Western areas are in MARGINAL RISK (isolated severe) for severe.
Storm Prediction Center outlook:
- 12:40 P.M. Weather Update
- 12:45 PM Weather Update
- 3 p.m. Weather Update
- 4 p.m. Weather Update
- December 12, 11 PM Weather Forecast Update
- March 12, 1 PM Weather Update
- April 14, 12 PM Weather Forecast Update
- May 6, 12 PM Weather Forecast Update
- November 11, 12 PM Weather Forecast Update
- November 12, 6 PM Weather Forecast Update