Highs today ran in the 80s with high humidity & lots of sunshine (with a nice breeze).
There aren't a lot of storms, but they are all concentrated in our area. The Lafayette storm has weakened, but it is still dumping heavy, heavy rainfall with a good deal of thunder & lightning. There is also a storm moving into northwest Fountain County.
Overall weakening, then collapsing trend should continue.
I honestly did not think that the storms would last long enough to get to the Monticello to Lafayette corridor, but they sure have! They are holding on. Convergence along the front is still good & we've got some lingering unstable air.
It is one of those situations of Mother Nature taking my notes with my numbers, grabbing the paper & tearing it in two! It is now just now-casting from here on out.
I am going to go ahead with 45% dropping to 20% rainfall coverage tonight, followed by areas of fog developing.
Here was the projected HRRR model for this evening from the late afternoon run:
Here is the 9:35 p.m. radar:
This weakening frontal boundary/convergence zone will get hung up to our south tomorrow. Any isolated/spotty storms look to stay south of our area, but given lackluster performance of the tiny details tonight, I'd like to keep a 20% shower/storm threat in tomorrow with sunshine & some clouds once the fog & any very low clouds burn off in the morning.
Saturday & Sunday look very warm to hot & humid with 87-90 & heat indices 90-97. A few storms are possible Sunday.
A few storms are possible Monday, followed by a round of widespread rain/storms Monday evening-night with perhaps an isolated severe storm or two. Some rainfall may linger into Tuesday as it turns cooler.
- 10 PM Forecast Update
- 10:30 PM UPDATE
- 10:20 PM LATEST FORECAST UPDATE
- 9:10 P.M. Weather Forecast Update
- October 15, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update
- October 26, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update
- October 29, 10 PM Weather Forecast Update
- December 10, 5 PM Weather Forecast Update
- 5:32 PM FORECAST UPDATE
- 6:21 PM Update