Expert sees 'a ray of sunshine' in Covid-19 battle, but deaths and variant cases are growing in the US

As President-elect Biden prepares to take office amid the pandemic, CNN's John King reviews the increasing Covid-19 case count in the US compared to vaccine doses administered.

Posted: Jan 18, 2021 7:11 PM
Updated: Jan 18, 2021 7:11 PM

Despite a steady growth in coronavirus deaths, a medical expert says the United States now has an opportunity to "get a hold of the pandemic."

"We're going to see a lot of deaths in the next two months but there is a ray of sunshine," Dr. Jonathan Reiner, a George Washington University medical professor and CNN medical analyst, said Monday on "New Day."

"Over the last four days for the first time in months, we've seen a steady decline ... a thousand per day fewer hospitalizations in the United States," he said. "We've seen the same trend in new cases."

Nationally, hospitalizations are now around 124,000 per day, down from 132,000 a few weeks ago. Reiner also said testing has increased in recent weeks, but test positivity has dropped to around 11% from a peak of 14% a few weeks ago.

"All of those metrics point to the conclusion that we may have passed the peak," he said. "If we stay put now and we mask up and we get vaccines into arms as quickly as possible, we can start to get a hold of this pandemic."

Still, Covid-related deaths are nearing 400,000 in the United States, and the country passed the 24 million mark in total cases, according to Johns Hopkins University data.

California, the current epicenter of the pandemic in the US, became the first state on Monday to record more than 3 million Covid-19 cases, according to data from Johns Hopkins and the Covid Tracking Project. The number of Covid-19 cases in California has tripled in just the past two months.

And multiple US states have now reported cases of a new Covid-19 variant first detected in the UK. The number of cases of this variant are likely to "double every week," according to Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former Food and Drug Administration commissioner.

"In about five weeks, this is going to start to take over," Gottlieb said during an interview on CBS' "Face the Nation."

"The only backstop against this new variant is the fact that we will have a lot of infection by then so there'll be a lot of immunity in the population, and we will be vaccinating more people," he added. "But this really changes the equation and I think what we're looking at is a relentless strike from this virus, heading into the spring."

"We could have persistently high levels of infection in the spring until we finally get enough people vaccinated."

And while Covid-19 variants are not necessarily more deadly, they still can cause more deaths, Dr. Anthony Fauci told NBC on Sunday.

"Even though on a one-to-one basis, it's not more virulent, meaning it doesn't make you more sick or more likely to die, just by numbers alone, the more cases you have, the more hospitalizations you're going to have, and the more hospitalizations you have, the more deaths you're going to have," Fauci said.

A new Covid-19 variant is now "increasingly being found in multiple counties throughout California," state health officials announced Sunday in a news release.

The variant, known as 452R, is different from the B.1.1.7 variant first detected in the United Kingdom, health officials say. As testing for variants has ramped up in California, the 452R version has been identified more frequently since November and has been identified in large outbreaks in Santa Clara County.

"It's too soon to know if this variant will spread more rapidly than others, but it certainly reinforces the need for all Californians to wear masks and reduce mixing with people outside their immediate households to help slow the spread of the virus," said California Department of Public Health epidemiologist Dr. Erica Pan.

US approaching 400,000 Covid-19 deaths

Just a little more than halfway into January, the US has added a staggering 3.9 million new Covid-19 cases and more than 51,000 virus-related deaths.

The country's total Covid-19 death toll is now rapidly approaching 400,000 -- that's more than the number of Americans who died in World War I, the Vietnam War and the Korean War combined and nearly as many Americans who died in World War II.

And it's far higher than any other country's Covid-19 death toll.

"The numbers are quite dire," Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, told CNN Sunday night.

The US has added more than 200,000 daily cases on all but three days this month. And the true number of infections may actually be several times higher than what's recorded, a recent study suggested.

Hotez estimates it's closer to a million new infections daily.

"This is a screaming level of transmission across the United States and people are scared, people are upset," Hotez added. "There is an enormous amount of work that's going to have to happen starting January 20."

Hospitals under 'severe stress' in next month

More than 124,300 Americans are currently hospitalized with the virus nationwide, according to the Covid Tracking Project. To put that into perspective, that's more than double the country's Covid-19 hospitalization peak in spring, according to data from the project.

In their latest briefing, the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projected hospitals in many states "will be under severe stress in the next four weeks."

That's already been the case in different parts across the country.

Los Angeles County -- the epicenter of California's Covid-19 crisis -- has battled a brutal surge of infections, hospitalizations and deaths for weeks now. County health officials reported Sunday more than 7,400 people remained hospitalized with the virus -- 23% of whom were in intensive care units.

In another sign of the spread of the virus in Los Angeles County, an air pollution control agency says it has temporarily suspended limits on cremations to assist crematoriums in the county with a "backlog" caused by the pandemic.

Permits for crematoriums usually contain limits on the number of human remains that can be cremated each month based on the potential impact they will have on air quality, according to the South Coast Air Quality Management District.

But after requests from both the county coroner and health department, the agency issued an emergency order Sunday suspending permit conditions that limit the number of cremations.

Pennsylvania officials said late last week there were more than 4,900 people hospitalized with Covid-19 -- nearly double spring's peak.

In Georgia, one hospital told CNN affiliate WSB they were so full they had to treat patients in hallways and ambulances.

"We truly are in the darkest days," Dr. Deepak Aggarwal, with Northeast Georgia Medical Center, told the news station.

12 million Americans have gotten first vaccine dose

Meanwhile, more than 12.2 million Americans have received their first dose of the Covid-19 vaccine and more than 31 million doses have been distributed across the country, according to the latest data from the CDC.

That's as the country is just days away from President-elect Joe Biden's inauguration.

Biden has outlined a plan for vaccinations that includes opening up eligibility to more people, creating more vaccination sites and taking measures to increase vaccine supply and distribution.

"Our plan is as clear as it is bold: Get more people vaccinated for free. Create more places for them to get vaccinated. Mobilize more medical teams to get the shots in people's arms. Increase supply and get it out the door as soon as possible," Biden said last week.

Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers said Monday he believes the incoming Biden administration will come through.

"I believe the Biden administration understands the importance of this," Evers said while speaking at a vaccination clinic in Green Bay. "We will get the vaccine that we need."

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said he sent a letter to Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar on Monday demanding an explanation for what Cuomo said was a false claim that vaccine doses held in reserve would be shipped to states. "The federal government is in control of the supply, they must increase the supply," Cuomo said.

Cuomo said he also sent a letter to the president of Pfizer asking if New York can buy vaccine doses directly from the drug company, which Cuomo believes would be a first.

In a statement provided to CNN, Pfizer responded to Cuomo's comments, saying, the company is open to collaborating with HHS to increase access to the vaccine.

"However, before we can sell directly to State governments, HHS would need to approve that proposal based on the EUA granted to Pfizer by the FDA," the statement said.

In Los Angeles, county officials are struggling to keep up with vaccination demand. While people 65 and older are eligible for the vaccine, the county is still inoculating health care workers. Dodger Stadium has opened as a mass-vaccination site and the county is scheduled to open similar sites at other locations this week.

Los Angeles Unified School District, the nation's second largest public school district, has requested authorization from state and local officials to administer the Covid-19 vaccine, Superintendent Austin Beutner said Monday morning.

Beutner said the district, which has 1,413 schools spread over 710 square miles, has 12 health clinics in high-needs areas already licensed to provide vaccinations and can pivot to vaccination sites.

"In a typical community we serve, there are about three drugstores, 2 fire stations, and 25 schools," he said. "No organization has the infrastructure to provide easier access to vaccinations than schools."

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Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 657037

Reported Deaths: 12450
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion901321624
Lake48105871
Allen35552632
Hamilton31839393
St. Joseph29538510
Elkhart25261412
Vanderburgh21115377
Tippecanoe19765197
Johnson16242352
Porter15838267
Hendricks15723296
Clark11843179
Madison11672314
Vigo11503228
Monroe10248158
Delaware9788178
LaPorte9720194
Howard9017194
Kosciusko8514107
Bartholomew7373147
Warrick7369146
Hancock7362128
Floyd7139164
Wayne6586188
Grant6395157
Morgan6040124
Boone603388
Dubois5868111
Dearborn540266
Henry539492
Marshall5390104
Cass537199
Noble506775
Jackson462063
Shelby458490
Lawrence4154111
Gibson399681
Harrison395160
Clinton392353
DeKalb382078
Montgomery381583
Knox354484
Miami354063
Whitley346235
Huntington338176
Steuben335955
Wabash328775
Putnam325959
Ripley325161
Adams320249
Jasper312943
White295351
Jefferson292770
Daviess284296
Fayette270255
Decatur269388
Greene259978
Posey259731
Wells255374
Scott248446
LaGrange240170
Clay238944
Randolph225076
Spencer215830
Jennings213544
Washington207727
Sullivan202038
Fountain200341
Starke185950
Owen181652
Jay177328
Fulton176437
Carroll175618
Perry172435
Orange170450
Rush163922
Franklin158335
Vermillion158040
Tipton145441
Parke137915
Pike127232
Blackford120027
Pulaski105643
Newton96431
Brown94639
Benton91113
Crawford90113
Martin80114
Switzerland7507
Warren74612
Union66810
Ohio52711
Unassigned0425

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