How 2018 midterms compare to past elections

CNN's John Avlon compares the 2018 midterm election projections to past midterm results and trends.

Posted: Nov 7, 2018 6:20 PM
Updated: Nov 7, 2018 6:30 PM

Americans disapprove of President Donald Trump's job as President, according to preliminary CNN exit polls. The results match his approval in recent public opinion polls, which have shown him to be under water nationally for months.

But there's much more to the story. In nearly every state with a key contested Senate or governor's race, he has a positive approval and is over 50%, according to CNN's preliminary exit poll data.

That wide difference in Trump's national vs. his key state approval helps explain the dual storyline emerging on election night of Democratic pickups giving them control of the US House and Republican success holding control of the US Senate by picking off Democratic senators representing states Trump won in 2016.

His highest approval of these states is West Virginia, oddly enough, where slightly more than three-in-five approve of the job he's doing as President, but Democrat Joe Manchin was able to keep his seat.

The exceptions to Trump's key state approval come in Nevada, Wisconsin and Texas, where his approval is slightly under 50% and more closely mirrors the national view.

In Arizona, where Democrat Kyrsten Sinema and Republican Martha McSally are locked in a dead heat, Trump's approval is 52%, with 47% who disapprove.

More than half of Florida voters, 51%, approve of the job Trump is doing as President, compared to 48% who do not. Both Republicans Rick Scott in the Senate race and Ron DeSantis in the governor's race hold leads in Florida.

In fact, Trump's 51% approval in 2018 Florida exit polls is an improvement over the 49% of the vote he received in 2016 votes in Florida.

Trump is over 50% in Georgia as well, a state he won with 51% of the vote in 2016. There is no Senate race this year, but where the Secretary of State Brian Kemp leads Georgia state legislator Stacey Abrams.

He is more popular in Indiana, where 53% of voters approved and 47% disapprove, according to the exit poll data. In that state, Republican Mike Braun was declared as the winner over Democratic incumbent Joe Donnelly. Trump's 53% approval in Indiana underperforms his more than 57% support there in 2016.

Missouri is extremely close for the President, where 51% approve and 48% disapprove and Republican Josh Hawley holds a commanding lead over incumbent Sen. Claire McCaskill. Ohio is around the same as Missouri, 51% approval in the state. Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is projected to keep his seat there, but Republican Mike DeWine holds a lead over Democrat Richard Cordray there.

Tennessee is one of the two states in this category where Trump's approval is a net positive above 10 percentage points. Around 57% said they approve of the job he's doing, fitting with the positive news for Republicans as CNN predicts Republican Marsha Blackburn will take a US Senate seat.

Where Trump is under water

Trump is under 50% approval in Texas, where Sen. Ted Cruz eked out a victory over Rep. Beto O'Rourke. Trump won Texas with more than 52% of the vote in 2016. Cruz got more than 56% of the vote in 2012.

Wisconsin is one of the worst states for the President. Only 45% approve and 54% disapprove, an 11-point net negative for the President. Democrat Tammy Baldwin easily held her seat there and Republican Gov. Scott Walker trails in his bid to be re-elected as governor.

In states without super competitive races, Trump's approval tends to be either much higher or much lower. In California, only a third of voters in 2018 approve of the job he's doing as President, while his approval in North Dakota is 61%. Other super negatives for the President include New Jersey, New York (-21 in both), Virginia (-13), Michigan (-9) and Pennsylvania (-10). His other very positive state is Mississippi (+15). Minnesota and Montana are close, with a less than five percent gap between approval and disapproval.

Note: Data current as of 11:45 p.m. ET

Lafayette
Clear
50° wxIcon
Hi: 59° Lo: 41°
Feels Like: 50°
Kokomo
Clear
48° wxIcon
Hi: 57° Lo: 40°
Feels Like: 45°
Rensselaer
Clear
45° wxIcon
Hi: 54° Lo: 34°
Feels Like: 38°
Lafayette
Clear
50° wxIcon
Hi: 55° Lo: 36°
Feels Like: 50°
Danville
Clear
47° wxIcon
Hi: 58° Lo: 39°
Feels Like: 43°
Frankfort
Clear
48° wxIcon
Hi: 60° Lo: 42°
Feels Like: 46°
Frankfort
Clear
48° wxIcon
Hi: 57° Lo: 41°
Feels Like: 46°
Monticello
Clear
46° wxIcon
Hi: 57° Lo: 40°
Feels Like: 42°
Monticello
Clear
46° wxIcon
Hi: 55° Lo: 39°
Feels Like: 42°
Logansport
Clear
46° wxIcon
Hi: 56° Lo: 38°
Feels Like: 43°
Rather Dry, Windy Forecast
WLFI Radar
WLFI Temps
WLFI Planner

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Cases: 700775

Reported Deaths: 13167
CountyCasesDeaths
Marion956451709
Lake51038935
Allen38781670
Hamilton34153404
St. Joseph33552538
Elkhart26950431
Vanderburgh21987393
Tippecanoe21560212
Johnson17387373
Porter17124297
Hendricks16690309
Clark12628190
Madison12271337
Vigo12126243
Monroe11302166
LaPorte10716204
Delaware10271184
Howard9590211
Kosciusko9037113
Hancock7896139
Bartholomew7824153
Warrick7665155
Floyd7526176
Wayne6865197
Grant6753168
Boone651099
Morgan6356138
Dubois6060117
Marshall5729108
Cass5662102
Dearborn566175
Henry5554100
Noble535583
Jackson490769
Shelby476095
Lawrence4322118
Gibson426188
Harrison425770
Montgomery415586
Clinton414753
DeKalb404883
Huntington375180
Whitley373939
Miami370865
Knox364689
Steuben360757
Putnam351460
Wabash345777
Jasper343746
Adams337452
Ripley332868
Jefferson307479
White306654
Daviess288299
Wells284480
Decatur278592
Fayette276962
Greene269385
Posey268033
Scott259053
Clay251544
LaGrange250170
Randolph234179
Washington229629
Spencer227331
Jennings224247
Fountain207445
Sullivan207341
Starke200352
Owen191056
Fulton190039
Jay185329
Carroll184820
Perry178936
Orange176152
Rush169824
Vermillion165643
Franklin165135
Tipton160843
Parke143616
Blackford132431
Pike129834
Pulaski112845
Newton102834
Brown99340
Crawford96914
Benton95313
Martin82215
Warren78815
Switzerland7698
Union69510
Ohio55511
Unassigned0405

COVID-19 Important links and resources

As the spread of COVID-19, or as it's more commonly known as the coronavirus continues, this page will serve as your one-stop for the resources you need to stay informed and to keep you and your family safe. CLICK HERE

Closings related to the prevention of the COVID-19 can be found on our Closings page.

Community Events