Who loses if Trump ditches Iran deal?

Can the Iran nuclear deal be saved?French President Emmanuel Macron will lobby President Donald Trump to stick...

Posted: Apr 24, 2018 3:37 PM
Updated: Apr 24, 2018 3:37 PM

Can the Iran nuclear deal be saved?

French President Emmanuel Macron will lobby President Donald Trump to stick with the deal during a White House visit on Tuesday. German Chancellor Angela Merkel will make the case on Friday.

Their goal is to save a deal signed in 2015 under which the United States and other powers agreed to lift some economic sanctions in return for Iran agreeing to rein in its nuclear program.

Trump has vowed to rip up the agreement, which he has described as "the worst deal ever." He's now threatening to reject an extension of the agreement ahead of a May 12 deadline.

So who loses out if Trump does decide to abandon the nuclear deal?

1. Car drivers

Iran has the fourth largest crude oil reserves in the world and claims nearly one-fifth of the planet's natural gas.

The country has ramped up production since sanctions were eased to about 3.8 million barrels a day. That's about a million barrels a day more than in 2015.

New sanctions on Iranian oil exports would put a dent in global supply and could cause prices to spike higher. They've already soared 14% this year to their highest level in three years, and the price of US gas has jumped to a national average of $2.75 a gallon.

"A lot of the reason for higher prices is the president's policy on Iran," said Joe McMonigle, senior energy policy analyst at Hedgeye Risk Management last week. "You're talking about a huge amount of oil at risk. You're going to see prices spike."

Related: Surging oil prices rattle President Trump

2. Boeing and Airbus

The biggest deals signed with foreign companies so far have been for airplanes to modernize Iran's creaking fleet.

Boeing signed an $8 billion deal to sell 80 jets to Iran Air after the sanctions were lifted. The first jets are due to be delivered this year.

Boeing has said the airplane sales to Iran Air will directly support tens of thousands of US jobs. The company noted that 100,000 Boeing employees will be involved with making good on the deal.

It has also agreed to sell 30 737 MAX airplanes worth $3 billion to Aseman Airlines, another Iranian carrier.

European rival Airbus wants a share of the action too. It has agreed to sell 100 jets to Iran for about $10 billion. Those sales could be in trouble if Trump reintroduces sanctions because Airbus uses parts made in America.

3. GE, Volkswagen and Total

While many major foreign companies have remained on the sidelines because of fears over a return of sanctions, a handful have jumped in.

Total signed a $2 billion agreement to help develop Iran's giant South Pars gas field, together with Chinese state oil company CNPC. But the French company has cautioned that a tough approach from Trump could kill the deal.

"Either we can do the deal legally if there is a legal framework," CEO Patrick Pouyann- told CNNMoney last year. "If we cannot do that for legal reasons ... then we have to revisit it."

General Electric has received millions of dollars in orders from Iran in 2017, according to company filings, for its oil and gas business.

In 2017, Germany's Volkswagen announced that it will sell cars in Iran for the first time in 17 years.

4. Airlines and hotel groups

Travel operators have taken advantage of the renewed interest in Iran as a business and tourist destination since sanctions were eased.

European airlines such as British Airways and Lufthansa have resumed direct flights to the country, and Iranian authorities have relaxed visa requirements.

France's Accor was the first international hotel chain to open in Iran in 2015.

Spain's Melia and Rotana of the United Arab Emirates have also announced plans to open hotels in Iran.

5. Iran's economy

Growth has returned to Iran in recent years, but the economic recovery remains fragile.

"As the full suite of American sanctions, including penalties on importing Iranian crude oil, snap back into place, Iran's precarious economic situation will certainly deteriorate," Suzanne Maloney, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, wrote earlier this month.

There have been warning signs already.

The Iranian rial has plunged against the US dollar in recent months. The currency has lost roughly a third of its value over the past year, and media reports suggest the decline has been steeper on black market exchanges.

The fall has made imports more expensive, and some Iranians are reportedly cashing in their savings to buy dollars and euros.

Unhappiness over the economy, and the government's management of the situation, helped fuel major protests in late 2017.

-- CNN's Ivana Kottasov- and Zahraa Alkhalisi contributed to this report.

Indiana Coronavirus Cases

Data is updated nightly.

Confirmed Cases: 36578

Reported Deaths: 2258
CountyConfirmedDeaths
Marion10188604
Lake3876207
Allen181071
Cass15919
Elkhart158528
St. Joseph135838
Hendricks120478
Hamilton119194
Johnson1125113
Madison60061
Porter56233
Clark53942
Bartholomew53139
LaPorte44824
Howard44236
Tippecanoe4344
Jackson4012
Delaware39741
Shelby39722
Hancock35427
Boone32436
Floyd31941
Vanderburgh2913
Morgan28626
Noble27821
Montgomery24917
Clinton2471
White2399
Decatur23132
Grant22923
Dubois2113
Kosciusko2052
Harrison19622
Marshall1872
Henry18512
Vigo1828
Greene17226
Dearborn17122
Monroe17113
Lawrence17124
Warrick16729
Miami1461
Putnam1427
Jennings1324
Orange13122
LaGrange1282
Scott1263
Franklin1168
Ripley1086
Daviess10416
Carroll952
Wayne906
Steuben902
Wabash812
Newton8010
Fayette797
Jasper741
Jay580
Clay533
Randolph523
Rush513
Fulton511
Washington501
Pulaski500
Jefferson491
Whitley453
DeKalb451
Starke423
Perry390
Huntington382
Sullivan371
Wells350
Owen341
Brown331
Benton320
Knox310
Blackford272
Tipton261
Crawford250
Adams231
Switzerland220
Spencer221
Fountain222
Gibson202
Parke180
Posey160
Martin140
Warren131
Ohio130
Vermillion100
Union100
Pike60
Unassigned0180
West Lafayette
Clear
67° wxIcon
Hi: 91° Lo: 57°
Feels Like: 67°
Kokomo
Clear
61° wxIcon
Hi: 84° Lo: 55°
Feels Like: 61°
Rensselaer
Clear
59° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 54°
Feels Like: 59°
Fowler
Clear
59° wxIcon
Hi: 83° Lo: 56°
Feels Like: 59°
Williamsport
Clear
68° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 57°
Feels Like: 68°
Crawfordsville
Clear
59° wxIcon
Hi: 86° Lo: 58°
Feels Like: 59°
Frankfort
Overcast
64° wxIcon
Hi: 88° Lo: 56°
Feels Like: 64°
Delphi
Clear
58° wxIcon
Hi: 89° Lo: 55°
Feels Like: 58°
Monticello
Clear
58° wxIcon
Hi: 88° Lo: 55°
Feels Like: 58°
Logansport
Clear
57° wxIcon
Hi: 85° Lo: 54°
Feels Like: 57°
Clear Skies Continue
WLFI Radar
WLFI Temps
WLFI Planner

COVID-19 Important links and resources

As the spread of COVID-19, or as it's more commonly known as the coronavirus continues, this page will serve as your one-stop for the resources you need to stay informed and to keep you and your family safe. CLICK HERE

Closings related to the prevention of the COVID-19 can be found on our Closings page.

Community Events