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VARIABLE RAINFALL WITH A FEW +4" TOTALS.......OUTLOOK RIGHT INTO AUGUST

Two main rounds of torrential storms passed today with a few locations seeing +4". Local flash flooding was reported. The only storm that looked severe was in the far northwest gusts of 60-62 mph likely there.

Posted: Jul. 5, 2018 9:39 PM
Updated: Jul. 5, 2018 10:21 PM

With two main rounds of storms today, rainfall was quite variable with some areas receiving +4", while others saw less than 0.10" or nothing.  Our northeastern areas received nothing, while pockets amidst 1.5-4" totals received just 0.10, 0.20". 

Even in the West Lafayette/Lafayette area, totals varied considerably with 1.20" here at WLFI to 2.03" at Tecumseh (Lafayette southside).  Just southeast of downtown, 2" was measured, while 1.41" was measured near Market Square, 1.49" northwest of Meadowbrook near I-65.  Interestingly, 5 miles east-southeast of WLFI, 1.43" was recorded & 1.17" fell at Green Meadows.  0.22" fell 5 miles southwest of Montmorenci & 0.50" at IN 26 & N 650 W south of Montmorenci.  Big thanks to all of you for sharing your totals & for your automated personal weather stations! 

The two highest totals measured, so far, was from a weather observer in southwestern Fountain County, 1 mile east of Perrysville with 4.10" & from weather observer of Miles Farms east-southeast of Attica with 4.31".

Here was the one severe storm that likely occurred.  60-62 mph gusts likely with this one in far northeastern Newon & northwestern, rural Jasper County.  It weakened rapidly as it moved southeastward.

No reports have been received from this area, however.

Everything is right on que for the Friday-Sunday forecast with pleasantly cool nights & warm, less humid days.  Sunday does not look as comfortable as Friday or Saturday.  Reason I say that is that the northeast winds of 10-15 mph Friday & east winds 10-15 mph Saturday will be non-existent Sunday.  Sunday will be a bit warmer with little wind (east-southeast 3-5 mph).

Although some patchy fog may develop for a brief period tonight, northeast winds late will mix it all out.  Some patchy fog is possible Saturday & Sunday mornings with lows in the mid to upper 50s-coolest in nearly four weeks.

Check out that lower humidity bleeding in on fresh northeast to east breezes!

.......Aaaaaannd watch it come back!  Mid to upper 70s OPPRESSIVE dew points may return for a bit later next week.

Branch of stronger flow aloft may break off late next week.  This, combined with surface cold front & high CAPE environment (think of it as storm energy from the intense heating & oppressive humidity) & a shortwave (colder pocket aloft side-swiping by) & the potential is there for a couple or a few clusters/complexes of storms with some scattered severe risk here. 

End-of-next-week highs will run 90-94 with heat indices around 100 to 108, it appears.

Don't focus on the exact times so much, but the processes, rather.  I am not confident, yet, that the heat/humidity & storm risk will last from late week through next weekend.  I am siding with trends & a persistence forecast approach for this.  Prior data was showing the tendency for cooler, less humid air to arrive next weekend.  Nonetheless, stay tuned as we monitor things down the road.

Storms:

Notice the tendency of the heat to get pushed back followed the burst of heat & high humidity with storms.

Notice the trend of temperatures running a bit below normal for latter July & into early August:

Also, notice the trend of drier than normal conditions for much of the area latter July to early August:

Even around August 7, pattern shows general troughiness with below normal temperatures trending in the East & ridging with above normal temperaturs in the West. 

Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will trend towards Phase 5 in latter July per model analysis.

Phase 5 often produces this pattern nearly half the time in the summer months (with the temperature):


Phase 5 is a less to unreliable of an indicator of rainfall in the summer months to produce a good anomaly map.  However, other factors appear to be driving a trend of below normal rainfall here with the overall cooler than normal regime.

Article Comments

West Lafayette
Broken Clouds
58° wxIcon
Hi: 68° Lo: 45°
Feels Like: 58°
Kokomo
Overcast
62° wxIcon
Hi: 67° Lo: 47°
Feels Like: 62°
Rensselaer
Scattered Clouds
54° wxIcon
Hi: 70° Lo: 44°
Feels Like: 54°
Fowler
Scattered Clouds
54° wxIcon
Hi: 68° Lo: 45°
Feels Like: 54°
Williamsport
Overcast
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Hi: 68° Lo: 45°
Feels Like: 55°
Crawfordsville
Overcast
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Hi: 67° Lo: 47°
Feels Like: 56°
Frankfort
Overcast
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Hi: 66° Lo: 47°
Feels Like: 61°
Delphi
Overcast
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Hi: 68° Lo: 45°
Feels Like: 56°
Monticello
Overcast
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Hi: 68° Lo: 45°
Feels Like: 56°
Logansport
Overcast
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Hi: 67° Lo: 45°
Feels Like: 59°
A few showers this morning, then trending cooler and drier.
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