TWO MAIN ROUNDS OF STORMS FOLLOWED BY COOLER & LESS HUMID WEATHER

After two main rounds of storms today with an isolated severe storm or two perhaps & some localized flash flooding, Friday will turn cooler & less humid. The weekend looks great with the coolest nights in more than 3 weeks expected.

Posted: Jul. 5, 2018 1:08 PM
Updated: Jul. 5, 2018 1:44 PM

Two main rounds of storms look to pass today.  One morning-early afternoon & another late afternoon-evening.

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An isolated severe storm or two (wind) cannot be ruled out.  Localized flash flooding will occur as there is a tremendous amount of water to squeeze from these storms.  Rainfall rates will be torrential with local +3" totals possible.  Cloud-to-ground lightning will be impressive, as well (by-product of the high amount of CAPE [think of it as storm energy] with a pretty good depth through the lower troposphere).

Rainfall should diminish tonight.

High-resolution computer model data showing radar projection for today-this evening:

Check out that lower humidity working in from the north & northeast Friday & lasting through the weekend.

Skies look mostly sunny Friday-Sunday with highs near 80 to the mid 80s & overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s with some patchy fog possible.

Lower dew points (more comfortable air) coming in:

The high humidity will return next week.  Unfortunately, it looks like I am going to have to go "VERY HUMID" for Thursday-Friday as dew points reach +75.  This, combined with highs of 89-93 & we are looking at two very oppressive days with heat indices of near 100 to 107.  However, beyond that, an overall cooler & less humid pattern will tend to settle for an extended period.  In fact, through some temperature ups & downs, the overall trend is for below normal temperatures latter July to mid-August.

Nonetheless, it is this intense humidity, heat & a branch of stronger mid- & upper-level winds breaking off (with a stronger surface cold front), that may bring a slightly increased severe risk Thursday-Friday of next week.  This would be more like SLIGHT RISK (severe severe) than MARGINAL RISK (isolated severe).

Burst of "very humid" weather late next week:

Branch of stronger flow aloft breaking off into our area:

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Storms (some severe) will develop midday-afternoon & exit by early evening.
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