LET'S DIG INTO THE OUTLOOK NOW-NOVEMBER.....WITH A NOTE ON WINTER & SPRING

Examining all analog & model data, not only do trends become apparent in the relatively shorter-range outlook, but well out into autumn. This post dives into the outlook from now to November.

Posted: Jul. 10, 2018 11:47 AM
Updated: Jul. 10, 2018 2:34 PM

Oh how I enjoy pushing forecast abilities & boundaries to the max & coaching towards better forecasting.  It goes much beyond looking a a computer model to predict weather, but an overall look of where we are globally & how the models tap into that & then what other similar years show. 

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By the way, I am siding with a colder & snowier than normal for this winter with a late start to spring.  In fact, right now, next spring looks similar to this one with cold lingering into April with a "flash start" (winter to summer in early May).

With heavy reliance on analog data in the longer-term portions of this outlook & a multi-approach for sooner forecasts, here is the forecast & overall trends now-November based on the absolute latest data I have available:

TODAY-MONDAY:

Scattered storms are likely along & ahead of a weak surface cold front this afternoon.  Probably will end up as a few storms ahead of a broken line.  I "upped" coverage from 25% to 40%.  An isolated severe storm or two (wind, 1" diameter hail) cannot be ruled out given the intense heating & good lapse rate (degree of cooling form surface to mid levels).  You can see the steep mid level lapse rate in the mix of altocumulus castellanus WITH the bubbling cumulus towers outside.  Once the towers hit that steep lapse rate where the castellanus are located, they will really pulse up.

Shear & wind fields are weak, but it is the lapse rate that will pulse some of these cells up.  Thus, storms are worthy of "isolated severe" wording.

Slight relief from the heat & humidity Wednesday & sort of Thursday will transform into an oppressive round of heat Friday-Monday with heat indices 100-110.  Thinking NWS Heat Advisories, possibly Excessive Heat Watches to Warnings may be issued Thursday-Friday.

You can see complexes/clusters of storms gradually affecting us by second half of the weekend & into Monday.  Given some stronger flow aloft & strength of cold front, some severe weather may occur (wind):

Cooler, less humid weather will rush in Tuesday with highs 70s to around 80.

Cooler trend should dominate (with some ups & downs in the temps of course) into early August with rainfall averaging below normal for the period (beyond mid July to early August).

Overall trend is for one last burst of intense heat at the end of August &/or early September.  August may end up slightly below normal temperature-wise overall (even with intense heat a the end) with September above normal, October below normal & November above normal.

Precipitation will likely end up normal in August, but there is a trend toward below normal overall September-November.

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