LATEST SHORTER-RANGE FORECAST ON STORM POTENTIAL NOW-TOMORROW NIGHT

The latest high-resolution suggest better storm potential overnight, best potential north of Lafayette

Posted: Jul. 4, 2018 10:39 PM
Updated: Jul. 4, 2018 11:05 PM

A nice band of storms has formed just north & northwest of our viewing area with one cell in northern Jasper County.  Latest data suggests this band moving farther southward tonight.  This makes sense in that the development of a bit of a cold pool (rain-cooled air surging forward) may pull it southward some. 

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The best rainfall coverage will be north of Lafayette, but it is not out of the question that a little bit of the rain gets as far south as Tippecanoe County.

This will be followed by weakening of storms in central Illinois, but outflow boundary from storms tonight will be over area & the central Illinois storms' outflow boundary will likely bubble up a new line(s) of storms in the area late morning to midday.  This will be round #1 tomorrow.

Round #2 tomorrow may be a cluster/complex or thick bowing line of storms that moves through after initially forming near Kankakee & Joliet near 1 p.m.  This may pass the area from north to south between 3 p.m. & 7 p.m., per latest analysis.  Hi-res models indicate that we should recover & hit 88-92 with a re-charge of surface instability (CAPE or think of it as storm energy) as heat indices hit 100 or +100 with a pooling of 75-80 dew points.

Isolated severe gusts are possible at any point tomorrow (Marginal risk of severe weather per Storm Prediction Center), along with localized flash flooding risk given the amount of water we can squeeze out.

Roughly 11 p.m. tonight to 7 a.m. Thursday morning projection:

Roughly 8 a.m. to around midday projection Thursday:

Roughly 1 p.m. to midnight:

Note the wind core on the afternoon-evening storms that shows up from Newton & Jasper to Benton & Warren counties.  This particular model shows a core of +45 mph gusts in that storm.

Rainfall totals will variable now-Friday evening, but notice the cores of +2.75" of rain (red) in the image.

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