Most shorter-range, high-resolution models keep a broken line of storms confined to our northeastern counties this evening, then collapse them before even making anywhere near Kentland to Monticello or Flora to Kokomo. The Storm Prediction Center has cut back the "MARGINAL RISK" for severe weather to cover only far northern Newton, northern Jasper & far northwestern Pulaski counties, rather than keeping it all the way down to southern Tippecanoe County.
We all remember what happened last week when there were strong indications that the storms would collapse at about Pine Village to Chalmers to Rochester & they barreled right into Attica & Lafayette. There were warnings, but no severe weather reported.
So, in these kinds of situations that deal on a small meso-scale level over counties, things can often go either way. You give it your best shot best on the numbers around you & knowledge you have, but that does not always guarantee you will completely nail tough forecast situations.
Right now, we are capped from the Lafayette area & southward, but uncapped in our northwestern half. It is becoming more & more unstable in our northwestern & northern counties, but still not so much in the southeast half. Cumulus have even had a hard time developing, largely in areas that are capped.
Shear & wind fields aloft are marginal in our northern areas. That, combined with the increasing instability (storm energy there) will likely continue to pop storms north & northwest of our area over the next few hours as little trough & weak cold front & outflow boundary approach.
Once again, models are light on much here. They really do not bring much into our area, except for a few storms in Pulaski & Fulton counties.
So, here is my forecast wording I am going with:
Some sttorms moving into northern/northwestern counties this evening, but should diminish & collapse with time. It is unclear how long they will last & how far south & southeast they will get, thoughts are that they would last only at the longest into the Fowler to Lafayette to Flora & Kokomo areas.
This is dependent upon how long the cap hangs on & how unstable it gets in the heart of the area. Timing for any of the storms with this broken line is 5:30 p.m. to 12 a.m.
However, I'd like to add the potential for a couple random, "few scattered" new showers &/or storms to pop overnight-tomorrow morning as cap erodes & outflow boundary from the collapsed broken line remains in the area.
Some patchy fog & very low cloudiness is also possible late tonight-tomorrow morning with lows 65-69.